This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.

Allow all

This website is operated by Moneta Markets Ltd, which is not authorised or regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and does not offer or promote services to UK residents. Access to this website is restricted in the UK and the content is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person located in the UK. If you believe you have reached this website in error, please exit the page now

Exit Website Continue

Please note that Moneta Markets operates this website and its services are not directed at residents of your jurisdiction.

The information on this site is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

If you have arrived here in error, we kindly advise you to exit the site.

Continue to Site

Oil Surges as Iran Tensions Escalate While FX Markets Weigh Intervention Risks | 3rd June, 2026

Oil Up, FX Wary

Global financial markets are navigating a mix of geopolitical tensions and currency market uncertainty as renewed Iranian missile activity pushes oil prices higher while traders remain alert to possible intervention from Japanese authorities. Commodity-linked currencies are struggling to gain traction despite rising crude prices, while Yen pairs remain volatile as USD/JPY approaches key psychological levels. Investors continue balancing geopolitical developments, economic data, and central bank expectations for the next major market catalyst.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil prices are advancing toward the $93.00 level as renewed Iranian missile activity increases concerns over regional stability and potential energy supply disruptions.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Escalating tensions in the Middle East support oil prices

• US Economic Data: Stable demand outlook helps support crude markets

• FOMC Outcome: Fed expectations remain secondary to geopolitical drivers

• Trade Policy: Energy market participants monitor supply security risks

• Monetary Policy: Global growth outlook remains a balancing factor

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: $94.50

• Support: $91.50

• Forecast: Oil may remain supported while geopolitical tensions persist

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish oil

• Catalysts: Iran developments and energy supply concerns

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Canadian Dollar remains weak despite higher oil prices, suggesting broader US Dollar strength is currently outweighing traditional commodity support.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Risk-off sentiment supports USD demand

• US Economic Data: Firm US fundamentals strengthen the Dollar

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations support USD/CAD upside

• Trade Policy: Commodity support is being overshadowed by USD strength

• Monetary Policy: Fed-BoC policy divergence remains supportive for USD

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish USD/CAD

• Resistance: 1.3900

• Support: 1.3810

• Forecast: USD/CAD may remain elevated despite rising oil prices

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish CAD

• Catalysts: Oil prices and US Dollar direction

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD remains under pressure following weaker Australian GDP data, with the pair holding near the 0.7170 region as investors reassess growth expectations.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions support defensive USD demand

• US Economic Data: Stronger Dollar sentiment weighs on AUD

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed outlook pressures risk-sensitive currencies

• Trade Policy: Slower domestic growth concerns affect sentiment

• Monetary Policy: RBA outlook faces increasing scrutiny after soft GDP data

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish

• Resistance: 0.7220

• Support: 0.7140

• Forecast: AUD/USD may remain vulnerable unless economic data improves

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish AUD

• Catalysts: Australian economic data and USD movement

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY is approaching the key 160.00 level, though traders are becoming increasingly cautious due to the growing risk of intervention by Japanese authorities.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven flows remain mixed

• US Economic Data: Higher US yields support Dollar demand

• FOMC Outcome: Fed-BoJ policy divergence continues favoring USD/JPY upside

• Trade Policy: Market attention remains fixed on intervention risk

• Monetary Policy: BoJ remains significantly more accommodative than the Fed

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 160.00

• Support: 158.80

• Forecast: Upside remains possible but intervention concerns may limit gains

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish USD/JPY

• Catalysts: Japanese government comments and US yields

EUR/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/JPY has slipped below 186.00 as traders reduce exposure amid growing intervention concerns, although the broader trend remains constructive.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Risk sentiment remains supportive of carry trades

• US Economic Data: Global yield environment supports higher-yielding currencies

• FOMC Outcome: Broad market stability supports Euro demand

• Trade Policy: Intervention fears limit aggressive upside positioning

• Monetary Policy: ECB-BoJ divergence continues favoring EUR/JPY strength

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 186.80

• Support: 184.80

• Forecast: Pullbacks may remain limited while broader bullish momentum persists

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish EUR/JPY

• Catalysts: Intervention rhetoric and risk sentiment

Wrap-Up

Global markets remain focused on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing intervention risks in Japanese currency markets. While higher oil prices are supporting energy markets, commodity-linked currencies continue to struggle against a firm US Dollar, and traders remain cautious as USD/JPY approaches key levels that could trigger official responses from Japanese authorities. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, central bank expectations, and intervention risk is likely to remain the dominant driver of market sentiment in the sessions ahead.

Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!

Risk Warning:
Derivatives are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how Derivatives work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Trading derivatives is risky. It isn't suitable for everyone; you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. You don't own or have rights to the underlying assets. Past performance is no indication of future performance and tax laws are subject to change. The information on this website is general in nature and doesn't consider your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. Please read our legal documents and ensure that you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions.
Regional Restrictions:
The information on this site is not intended for residents of Canada, Cyprus, France, Spain, Russia, Ukraine, Italy, the United States, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: Unit 7, 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Mmonexia Ltd, facilitates payment services to the licensed and regulated entities within the Moneta Markets Organizational structure.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus. Mmonexia Ltd, facilitates payment services to the licensed and regulated entities within the Moneta Markets Organizational structure.

Moneta Markets Limited. Business Registration Number:72493069. Registration Address: Flat/RM A 12/F ZJ 300, 300 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Contact Phone Number: +852 37522556. Operational Office: Unit 1201, 12/F, FWD Financial Centre, 308 Des Voeux Road Central, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets Capital Ltd is registered in England and Wales under company number 08279988, registered office address, Amlbenson the Long Lodge, 265-269 Kingston Road, Wimbledon, England, SW19 3NW and authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom (FRN 613381) to provide services to UK clients and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Markets Excellence Holding Limited. Other Moneta Markets entities are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and do not offer services to UK residents.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.