cookie

This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.

Allow all
top icon

This website is operated by Moneta Markets Ltd, which is not authorised or regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and does not offer or promote services to UK residents. Access to this website is restricted in the UK and the content is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person located in the UK. If you believe you have reached this website in error, please exit the page now

Moneta Markets

Please note that Moneta Markets operates this website and its services are not directed at residents of your jurisdiction.

The information on this site is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

If you have arrived here in error, we kindly advise you to exit the site.

Continue to Site
Moneta Markets

Markets on Edge Gold Drops, Dollar Surges, Oil Spikes on Middle East Tensions | 4th May 2026

Markets on Edge

Global markets opened with a cautious tone as oil prices slipped despite lingering supply concerns, weighing on broader commodity sentiment. Across FX, price action remained mixed, with the Japanese Yen turning cautious amid fiscal and political uncertainty, the Australian Dollar holding near multi-month highs, and Asian currencies steady as traders monitored policy signals from China and ongoing global macro risks.

Gold Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold is trading under pressure, drifting lower as markets increasingly price in persistent inflation and a more hawkish stance from major central banks.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Elevated tensions support safe-haven demand but are being offset by USD strength

  • US Economic Data: Sticky inflation keeps rate-cut expectations subdued

  • FOMC Outcome: Higher-for-longer rate outlook pressures non-yielding assets

  • Trade Policy: Limited direct impact but contributes to cautious sentiment

  • Monetary Policy: Hawkish bias remains dominant globally

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bearish bias below key resistance

  • Resistance: 4,650

  • Support: 4,550

  • Forecast: A sustained break below support may trigger deeper downside

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish to neutral

  • Catalysts: US inflation data, Fed commentary, geopolitical headlines

Silver Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver is weakening alongside gold, with bearish momentum pushing prices toward the $74.00 level.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Limited upside due to stronger USD

  • US Economic Data: Inflation outlook weighs on metals

  • FOMC Outcome: Rate expectations pressure industrial metals

  • Trade Policy: Weak global demand signals

  • Monetary Policy: Tight financial conditions

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bearish

  • Resistance: 75.50

  • Support: 74.00

  • Forecast: Continued downside if bearish momentum persists

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish

  • Catalysts: Industrial demand outlook, USD movement, macro data

 

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar is weakening as risk-off sentiment boosts the US Dollar.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Drives safe-haven flows into USD

  • US Economic Data: Strong data supports USD strength

  • FOMC Outcome: Hawkish expectations weigh on AUD

  • Trade Policy: China-related concerns linger

  • Monetary Policy: Divergence between Fed and RBA outlook

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bearish

  • Resistance: 0.6050

  • Support: 0.5950

  • Forecast: Further downside likely if risk-off persists

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish

  • Catalysts: China data, US yields, risk sentiment

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD is attempting a mild recovery near 0.5900 but remains vulnerable amid USD strength and geopolitical risks.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: US-Iran tensions support USD

  • US Economic Data: Strong macro backdrop limits NZD upside

  • FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations

  • Trade Policy: Global uncertainty weighs on NZD

  • Monetary Policy: RBNZ vs Fed divergence

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Neutral to bearish

  • Resistance: 0.5950

  • Support: 0.5850

  • Forecast: Upside limited unless USD weakens

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Cautious

  • Catalysts: Geopolitical developments, US data, risk appetite

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil is rallying toward the $100 mark, driven by supply concerns and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Strait of Hormuz tensions tighten supply outlook

  • US Economic Data: Stable demand expectations

  • FOMC Outcome: Limited impact compared to supply risks

  • Trade Policy: Secondary factor

  • Monetary Policy: Less influential vs geopolitics

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bullish

  • Resistance: 100.00

  • Support: 96.50

  • Forecast: Break above $100 could extend rally further

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish

  • Catalysts: Middle East developments, supply disruptions, inventory data

Wrap-Up

Markets remain on edge as persistent inflation concerns and hawkish central bank expectations keep the US Dollar strong, weighing on gold, silver, and risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD, while escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to drive oil prices higher toward the $100 mark; moving forward, traders will closely watch US inflation data, Federal Reserve signals, and Middle East developments, with volatility likely to persist as downside risks dominate metals and risk assets, while energy markets stay supported unless tensions ease.

Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!

open chat