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Cisco Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Networking Strength Meets AI Infrastructure Surge | 11th November 2025

Cisco Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Networking Strength Meets AI Infrastructure Surge | 11th November 2025

Cisco’s AI Networking Boost

Cisco Systems is approaching its Q3 2025 earnings release, riding a wave of strong demand for its networking and AI‑infrastructure solutions. With product orders up and major web‑scale customers signing on, the company enters the quarter with positive momentum — yet cost pressures and macro risks (like tariffs) remain in the background.

Cisco Performance Snapshot

Q3 revenue of US$14.1 billion, up ~11% year‑on‑year.

GAAP EPS: ~US$0.62 per share; Non‑GAAP EPS: ~US$0.96 per share.

Product orders grew ~20% YoY (9% growth excluding the Splunk Inc. acquisition).

Cisco Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast: Current Price & Context

Cisco shares are currently trading in the US$60–65 range, reflecting moderate upside potential given their solid beat history. The market expects ~10–11% revenue growth and EPS near US$0.92 before results. The key will be whether Cisco can leverage its AI‑infrastructure momentum into sustained higher margins, while navigating tariff and supply‑chain headwinds.

Key Focus Areas

1.AI & Infrastructure Demand — Cisco’s AI‑infrastructure orders have already exceeded US$600 million for the year, signaling strong enterprise interest.

2. Security & Software Growth — The company’s acquisition of Splunk boosts its security and observability segment, which is becoming a greater driver of growth.

3. Margin Pressure and Tariffs — While revenue is growing, margins face pressure from tariffs and global supply‑chain factors; investors will watch guidance closely.

4. Recurring Revenue Strength — With software and subscription revenue gaining share, the shift toward recurring business models is critical for long‑term valuation.

5. Capital Returns & Guidance — Cisco’s return of capital via dividends and buybacks remains strong, but forward guidance will influence investor sentiment amid broader tech pressure.

Technical and Market Outlook

Trend: Cautiously positive with strong structural tailwinds in AI/infra

Resistance: ~US$70

Support: ~US$55–57

Forecast: A confirmed beat plus upgraded guidance could push the stock toward ~$70+, whereas weak guidance or margin concerns may test support nearer ~$55.

Investor Sentiment

Sentiment is moderately bullish. Analysts highlight Cisco’s leadership in networking for the AI era, but some caution that competitive risks and macro headwinds (tariffs, supply) may temper upside.

Wrap-up

Cisco’s Q3 earnings will be more than just another quarter — they’ll test whether the company is successfully capitalising on the AI infrastructure boom and shifting from traditional networking into faster‑growing segments. For investors, the focus isn’t just on growth, but on sustainable margin expansion and credible guidance into FY2026.

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Markets Calm as Shutdown Nears End | 11th November 2025

Markets Calm as Shutdown Nears End | 11th November 2025

Relief for Global Markets

Global markets opened the week on a steadier note as optimism grew around a potential resolution to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. Investors welcomed signs of bipartisan progress, helping risk sentiment recover after days of political gridlock and uncertainty. The U.S. Dollar firmed modestly, while precious metals like Gold and Silver extended gains as traders continued to price in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid lingering economic headwinds.

Energy markets also stabilized, with oil prices holding near recent highs as demand forecasts improved. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars saw mild pressure, while USD/CAD rebounded on renewed greenback strength. Overall, the improving outlook for U.S. fiscal negotiations injected a cautiously positive tone across global markets.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold climbed to a two-week high, trading just above $4,000, as softer U.S. data and easing Treasury yields boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut early next year. The metal’s gains were tempered slightly by optimism over a potential U.S. government shutdown deal, which limited demand for defensive assets.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical frictions continue to provide mild underlying support for gold.

  • US Economic Data: Weak factory and services figures reinforced expectations for slower growth, aiding gold prices.

  • FOMC Outcome: Markets remain confident the Fed will pivot toward easing in the coming months.

  • Trade Policy: Optimism over U.S. fiscal resolution has reduced safe-asset demand temporarily.

  • Monetary Policy: Dovish Fed expectations keep gold’s longer-term bias upward.

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bullish momentum persists above the $4,000 mark.

  • Resistance: $4,050 and $4,080 are key upside barriers.

  • Support: Initial support lies at $3,970, followed by $3,940.

  • Forecast: Gold may consolidate above $4,000, targeting a break toward $4,060 if dovish sentiment deepens.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Traders remain cautiously optimistic, favoring gold as a medium-term hedge.

  • Catalysts: Progress in U.S. fiscal talks and upcoming inflation data will dictate the next move.

Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver extended its climb, trading near $51.00, benefiting from continued demand for alternative assets and easing bond yields. The rally remains underpinned by Fed cut expectations, though optimism over the U.S. shutdown resolution has slightly capped upside momentum.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Broader global uncertainty supports silver’s industrial-hedge appeal.

  • US Economic Data: Softer U.S. economic figures reinforced silver’s upward bias.

  • FOMC Outcome: Rate cut bets continue to attract buyers to non-yielding assets.

  • Trade Policy: Improved fiscal outlook tempers defensive buying.

  • Monetary Policy: Anticipated monetary easing supports a sustained bid in silver.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Gradually bullish above the $49.50 zone.

  • Resistance: $51.50 and $52.00 mark key topside levels.

  • Support: $50.00 and $49.20 serve as key supports.

  • Forecast: Silver may test $51.50 as long as the Fed maintains a dovish tone.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Positive, with moderate profit-taking expected near current highs.

  • Catalysts: Fed commentary and U.S. CPI data later this week may drive renewed volatility.

Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar remains subdued near 0.6550, pressured by a stronger greenback as optimism over the end of the U.S. shutdown lifted sentiment toward the USD. Weaker Chinese trade data further dampened AUD’s performance amid ongoing concerns over regional demand.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Stabilizing U.S.-China relations offer limited tailwinds.

  • US Economic Data: Stronger U.S. labor and sentiment data favor the dollar.

  • FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance limits AUD upside.

  • Trade Policy: China’s trade softness continues to weigh on commodity-linked currencies.

  • Monetary Policy: The RBA remains neutral, keeping AUD directionally dependent on global cues.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Slightly bearish below 0.6600.

  • Resistance: 0.6580 and 0.6620.

  • Support: 0.6520 and 0.6480.

  • Forecast: AUD/USD may remain rangebound between 0.6500–0.6600 pending fresh U.S. data.

     

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish amid soft regional fundamentals.

  • Catalysts: China’s upcoming CPI and U.S. macro indicators could trigger volatility.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD softened below 0.5650, extending mild losses as optimism over a U.S. government deal lifted the greenback. Weak domestic demand and subdued Chinese data added to the Kiwi’s underperformance.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Reduced global risk aversion dampens NZD appeal.

  • US Economic Data: Stronger U.S. indicators boost USD buying interest.

  • FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s caution keeps USD supported against high-beta currencies.

  • Trade Policy: China’s weaker imports weigh on NZD outlook.

  • Monetary Policy: RBNZ remains neutral, limiting near-term policy divergence.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Downward bias below 0.5700.

  • Resistance: 0.5680 and 0.5720.

  • Support: 0.5620 and 0.5580.

  • Forecast: NZD/USD likely to consolidate lower, with risks skewed to further downside.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish as traders favor USD strength over commodity FX.

  • Catalysts: U.S. CPI data and New Zealand’s upcoming retail figures.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD rebounded toward 1.4050, driven by renewed U.S. Dollar demand as shutdown optimism lifted yields. Oil prices steadied near $60.00, limiting CAD’s downside but keeping the pair biased upward overall.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Global fiscal optimism supports risk appetite but strengthens USD.

  • US Economic Data: Solid U.S. payroll and services readings bolster the greenback.

  • FOMC Outcome: Markets discount further near-term cuts, supporting USD strength.

  • Trade Policy: Energy trade sentiment remains mixed after OPEC’s recent announcements.

  • Monetary Policy: BoC maintains its cautious stance amid inflation concerns.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bullish bias above 1.4000.

  • Resistance: 1.4080 and 1.4120.

  • Support: 1.4000 and 1.3950.

  • Forecast: USD/CAD may retest 1.4100 if U.S. yields continue to edge higher.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bullish, with the USD in control short-term.

  • Catalysts: U.S. U.S. shutdown progress and Canada’s employment data later in the week.

Wrap-up

Market participants will continue to monitor progress in U.S. shutdown talks, with attention also shifting to upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data for further policy cues. A formal resolution could lift overall risk sentiment and pressure safe-haven assets, while any renewed delay might reignite volatility. For now, traders appear content to stay balanced—positioning ahead of key U.S. data releases that could define the Fed’s rate outlook into year-end.

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Global Currencies React to Shifting Trade Data and Central Bank Policies Amid Mixed Dollar Performance | 7th November 2025

Global Currencies React to Shifting Trade Data and Central Bank Policies Amid Mixed Dollar Performance | 7th November 2025

Global FX Shifts & Policy

The U.S. Dollar regained footing on Friday after a volatile week, buoyed by firm U.S. yields and renewed caution following weak Chinese trade data. Market participants digested a narrowing in China’s October trade surplus — a sign of slowing global demand — which pressured risk-linked currencies like the AUD and NZD. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen retreated after a brief rally, and USD/CAD hovered near six-month highs despite persistent speculation about eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Investors now await the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for further direction, as traders assess the balance between resilient U.S. fundamentals and fading global growth momentum.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD remains firm above 1.4100, hovering near a six-month high as traders balance soft crude oil prices against moderating expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts. The pair’s resilience reflects underlying USD strength amid subdued risk appetite and weak Canadian data momentum.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Stable energy supply and limited geopolitical escalation have capped CAD’s upside.

  • US Economic Data: Solid U.S. job figures continue to support the greenback, reinforcing rate cut hesitation.

  • FOMC Outcome: Markets have dialed back aggressive Fed easing bets, keeping USD demand intact.

  • Trade Policy: No major trade disruptions, but slowing global trade indirectly pressures CAD via oil.

  • Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada’s cautious tone contrasts with the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance.

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Uptrend momentum remains firm above 1.4100.

  • Resistance: 1.4165 and 1.4230.

  • Support: 1.4050 and 1.3980.

  • Forecast: USD/CAD may test 1.4200 if oil prices weaken further and U.S. yields stay elevated.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Mildly bullish toward USD amid risk aversion.

  • Catalysts: Canada’s jobs report and U.S. sentiment data may drive near-term volatility.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD trades below 0.5650 as China’s October trade surplus narrowed, raising concerns about New Zealand’s export outlook. The Kiwi weakened alongside other risk-sensitive currencies as demand for U.S. Dollars returned.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty keeps safe-haven flows tilted toward the USD.

  • US Economic Data: Robust U.S. payroll growth amplifies policy divergence.

  • FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s steady tone contrasts with RBNZ’s cautious growth outlook.

  • Trade Policy: China’s weaker trade figures highlight fragility in NZ’s key export market.

  • Monetary Policy: The RBNZ’s pause amid slowing inflation limits NZD support.


Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bearish bias below 0.5650.

  • Resistance: 0.5685 and 0.5720.

  • Support: 0.5600 and 0.5560.

  • Forecast: NZD/USD likely to remain pressured unless Chinese trade sentiment stabilizes.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish on the Kiwi.

  • Catalysts: Chinese inflation and trade data revisions may influence near-term moves.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD slipped as China’s trade surplus narrowed in October, signaling weaker demand for Australian commodities. The pair traded near 0.6400, with investors staying cautious amid declining risk appetite.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Global growth slowdown dampens commodity-linked sentiment.

  • US Economic Data: Solid U.S. employment data reinforces USD strength.

  • FOMC Outcome: A patient Fed stance sustains USD resilience.

  • Trade Policy: China’s slowing imports weigh directly on Australia’s export outlook.

  • Monetary Policy: The RBA’s neutral stance leaves AUD vulnerable to external headwinds.


Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Sideways-to-bearish near 0.6400.

  • Resistance: 0.6450 and 0.6510.

  • Support: 0.6360 and 0.6310.

  • Forecast: AUD/USD may drift toward 0.6350 unless Chinese demand sentiment recovers.


Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish-to-neutral, pressured by China data.

  • Catalysts: Chinese industrial output and U.S. CPI next week could trigger fresh direction.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY eased slightly after touching a one-week high, trading near 151.50 as Japan’s weak domestic data limited Yen strength. Traders continue to weigh Bank of Japan’s policy hesitation against resilient U.S. Treasury yields.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven demand despite global slowdown fears.

  • US Economic Data: Solid U.S. data sustains Treasury yield support.

  • FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady approach underpins USD demand.

  • Trade Policy: Japan’s exports face headwinds from weaker China demand.

  • Monetary Policy: BoJ’s reluctance to hike further weakens JPY appeal.


Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bullish bias above 151.00.

  • Resistance: 151.85 and 152.30.

  • Support: 150.90 and 150.30.

  • Forecast: USD/JPY may retest 152.00 if BoJ maintains dovish tone.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish on USD as yield spread favors Dollar.

  • Catalysts: Next BoJ policy guidance and U.S. sentiment data.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded near the 100 level after Thursday’s sharp drop, supported by resilient data and cautious global sentiment. The recovery signals that markets are rebalancing after overextended short-dollar positioning.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global growth concerns bolster the USD’s safe-haven role.

  • US Economic Data: Strong labor data underpins economic resilience.

  • FOMC Outcome: Steady Fed stance sustains dollar demand.

  • Trade Policy: Global trade slowdown indirectly supports USD via risk aversion.

  • Monetary Policy: Other major central banks turning dovish enhances relative USD strength.


Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Rebound from oversold territory.

  • Resistance: 100.45 and 100.90.

  • Support: 99.80 and 99.40.

  • Forecast: DXY likely to consolidate near 100.50 before next week’s U.S. CPI release.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish as risk sentiment remains fragile.

  • Catalysts: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and next week’s CPI figures.

Wrap-up

Currency markets ended the week on a cautious note, with the U.S. Dollar Index stabilizing near the 100 mark after recent losses. Weaker Chinese trade figures weighed on commodity-linked currencies, while safe-haven demand softened amid calmer risk sentiment. Looking ahead, next week’s U.S. CPI print and key central bank commentary will be crucial in shaping expectations for December policy decisions, potentially setting the tone for FX performance into mid-November.

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Dollar Slips, Gold Softens as Shutdown Drags On | 6th November 2025

Dollar Slips, Gold Softens as Shutdown Drags On | 6th November 2025

Dollar Dips, Gold Eases

Global markets traded cautiously on Thursday as investors weighed the economic implications of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now the longest in history. The U.S. Dollar Index struggled to maintain support near the 100.00 mark, while gold and silver prices eased amid a modest rebound in U.S. private payrolls. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor developments in Asia, with China’s latest yuan fixing and speculation surrounding a possible Bank of Japan policy shift adding to cross-asset volatility.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD)

Current Price and Context

Gold edged lower below $4,000 after a modest rebound in U.S. private payrolls trimmed some of the immediate safe-haven demand. The metal remains supported by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and persistent inflation uncertainty, but upside is capped while the Dollar finds intermittent bids.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: The prolonged U.S. shutdown keeps headline risk elevated, sustaining occasional defensive buying in gold.

  • US Economic Data: A rebound in private payrolls reduced some near-term safe-haven flows, weighing on bullion.

  • FOMC Outcome: Any Fed comments that push back on rate cuts would raise real yields and pressure gold.

  • Trade Policy: Easing US–China trade tensions lower extreme hedging flows, limiting gold’s outsized rallies.

  • Monetary Policy: A still-accommodative global central-bank backdrop supports medium-term demand for precious metals.

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Neutral-to-slightly bullish on the medium term while above $3,950.

  • Resistance: $4,030 then $4,080.

  • Support: $3,960 then $3,920.

  • Forecast: Expect consolidation in the $3,950–$4,030 range; a decisive break above $4,030 would reopen upside toward $4,080.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Cautious — traders are hedging with small positions, buying dips into headline risk.

  • Catalysts: Any US shutdown developments, US CPI/PCE prints, and Fed speakers.

Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD)

Current Price and Context

Silver is trading near $49.00 but shows vulnerability below the pivotal $49.35–$49.40 zone as profit-taking follows the recent run. The metal remains sensitive to both defensive flows and industrial demand cues, so its next directional move will depend on risk sentiment and US data.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Elevated headline risk from the US shutdown provides intermittent support to silver.

  • US Economic Data: Strong payrolls weaken the safe-haven bid and can pressure silver; weak data would do the opposite.

  • FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed talk lifts real yields and tends to cap silver’s gains.

  • Trade Policy: Improved US-China trade tone helps industrial demand, a positive for silver’s fundamentals.

  • Monetary Policy: Global easing expectations remain a tailwind, but silver’s volatility is higher than gold’s.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Short-term corrective while below the $49.35–$49.40 resistance band.

  • Resistance: $49.35–$49.40 then $50.20.

  • Support: $48.40 then $47.80.

  • Forecast: Expect rangebound action between $47.80–$49.40; a breach above $49.40 would target $50+.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Mixed — traders trim positions ahead of major US prints.

  • Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, US–China headlines, and Treasury yield moves.

US Dollar Index Forecast (DXY)

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index is holding losses near 100.00 as the U.S. government shutdown becomes the longest on record, producing intermittent dollar weakness amid fiscal uncertainty. While headline risk often supports safe-haven FX flows, the shutdown’s growth implications are creating two-way pressure on the Dollar.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: The ongoing U.S. shutdown elevates fiscal uncertainty and periodically boosts safe-haven demand for USD.

  • US Economic Data: Mixed domestic data (payrolls rebound vs other soft prints) is causing rangebound Dollar dynamics.

  • FOMC Outcome: Any pushback from the Fed on rate-cut timing would support the Dollar; dovish tilt would weigh.

  • Trade Policy: Improving trade tone with China could reduce USD safe-haven demand over time.

  • Monetary Policy: Diverging central-bank expectations (Fed vs others) remain the key structural driver of the DXY.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Neutral-to-rangebound around the 99.50–100.50 area.

  • Resistance: 100.40 then 101.00.

  • Support: 99.30 then 98.80.

  • Forecast: Expect consolidation near 100.00; sustained downside requires clear easing in risk aversion or dovish Fed signals.

     

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Cautious and data-dependent as markets price fiscal and policy uncertainty.

  • Catalysts: US shutdown headlines, upcoming CPI/PCE releases, and Fed commentary.

USD/CNY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CNY is trading around 7.0865–7.09 after the PBOC set a slightly firmer reference (7.0865 vs prior 7.0901), signaling intent to steady the yuan amid global uncertainty. Markets view the PBoC fix and China’s policy signals as efforts to maintain FX stability while growth/ trade measures are adjusted.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Reduced US-China tensions from tariff easing help ease depreciation pressure on the yuan.

  • US Economic Data: A firmer US Dollar on stronger data would push USDCNY higher.

  • FOMC Outcome: A hawkish Fed raises USD funding demand and may pressure onshore rates.

  • Trade Policy: China’s tariff relief for some US agricultural goods is constructive for bilateral flows and yuan sentiment.

  • Monetary Policy: PBoC’s reference-setting and liquidity operations aim to limit volatility and support the currency.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Sideways with a mild firmer-yuan bias driven by policy guidance.

  • Resistance: 7.1000 then 7.1150.

  • Support: 7.0700 then 7.0500.

  • Forecast: Expect a managed range near current levels; stronger risk appetite and tariff easing could nudge USDCNY lower.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Cautiously constructive toward the yuan as policy aims for stability.

  • Catalysts: PBoC fixes, Nov. 10 tariff changes implementation, and US macro surprises.

Japanese Yen Forecast (USD/JPY)

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY is trading with modest upside pressure as the Japanese Yen posts small gains but remains vulnerable amid ongoing BoJ uncertainty; the pair sits near multi-month peaks for USD/JPY. Investors are balancing the prospect of BoJ policy shifts against a resilient Dollar and risk dynamics tied to the US shutdown.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Regional stability and global risk moves intermittently support the Yen as a defensive asset.

  • US Economic Data: Strong US prints lift the Dollar and can push USD/JPY higher.

  • FOMC Outcome: A hawkish Fed would tend to keep USD/JPY elevated via higher US yields.

  • Trade Policy: Strategic supply deals and trade developments influence JPY flows indirectly through risk channels.

  • Monetary Policy: BoJ uncertainty (timing and pace of tightening) remains the dominant idiosyncratic factor for the Yen.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Rangebound with a mild USD bias while BoJ outcomes remain unclear.

  • Resistance:154.50 then 155.20.

  • Support: 153.20 then 152.50.

  • Forecast: Expect consolidation with occasional spikes; a clear BoJ tightening signal would likely push USD/JPY lower (yen stronger), while continued USD strength keeps upside risk intact.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Mixed — traders are hedging around potential BoJ commentary and US data.

  • Catalysts: BoJ minutes/speeches, Tokyo CPI updates, and US Treasury yield moves.

Wrap-up

Markets remain on edge as political gridlock in Washington casts uncertainty over near-term U.S. fiscal stability. Traders will now turn their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials for fresh clues on rate trajectory and market sentiment. With risk appetite fragile and safe-store demand fluctuating, volatility may persist across major currency and commodity pairs heading into the weekend.

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Shutdown Risks, Tariff Relief Shape FX Moves | 5th November 2025

Shutdown Risks, Tariff Relief Shape FX Moves | 5th November 2025

FX Moves on Policy

Global markets traded mixed on Tuesday as investors assessed the implications of a potential U.S. government shutdown and fresh signs of easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The U.S. Dollar firmed modestly amid safe-haven demand, while the British Pound and New Zealand Dollar fell sharply on weak domestic fundamentals. Meanwhile, China’s pledge to lift tariffs on certain U.S. agricultural imports added a dose of optimism to trade-sensitive currencies and commodities.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD)

Current Price and Context

Gold extended its gains above $4,000 as investors sought safety amid concerns that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could become the longest in history. The yellow metal benefited from a weaker U.S. Dollar and renewed safe-haven demand as fiscal uncertainty weighed on risk sentiment.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Fears of prolonged U.S. political gridlock have revived risk aversion, boosting gold’s defensive appeal.

  • US Economic Data: Recent mixed labor data underscores fragile growth momentum, favoring gold as a hedge.

  • FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance and rate cut expectations lend additional support to non-yielding assets.

  • Trade Policy: Market optimism over easing U.S.-China trade tensions has been overshadowed by domestic political risk.

  • Monetary Policy: A potential dovish policy turn from the Fed continues to underpin the metal’s outlook.

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bullish momentum persists after reclaiming the $4,000 handle.

  • Resistance: $4,030 and $4,065.

  • Support: $3,980 and $3,950.

  • Forecast: A sustained break above $4,030 could open the path toward $4,080 in the near term.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Traders are leaning bullish on safe-haven assets amid heightened political and fiscal uncertainty.

  • Catalysts: Any resolution—or escalation—of the U.S. shutdown saga will be key to near-term gold direction.

Crude Oil Forecast (WTI)

Current Price and Context

WTI crude fell further to hover near $60.00, pressured by a sharp rise in U.S. crude inventories and fading demand optimism. The recent OPEC+ pause in output hikes failed to offset the drag from weaker global consumption signals.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions remain contained, offering limited risk premium for oil.

  • US Economic Data: Rising stockpiles and slower industrial demand signal cooling energy consumption.

  • FOMC Outcome: Softer Fed outlook supports growth sentiment, but inventory data dominates near term.

  • Trade Policy: Improved U.S.-China trade tone could bolster longer-term oil demand.

  • Monetary Policy: Stable interest rate expectations help limit downside volatility in commodities.


Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bearish momentum persists after multiple failed recoveries above $62.00.

  • Resistance: $61.00 and $62.20.

  • Support: $59.70 and $58.90.

  • Forecast: If prices close below $59.70, a slide toward $58.00 could follow.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish, as traders respond to mounting supply signals.

  • Catalysts: Upcoming EIA data and any fresh OPEC+ commentary will steer price action.

China Trade Policy Update

Current Price and Context

China’s Finance Ministry announced plans to lift some tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports from November 10, a move seen as a step toward stabilizing trade relations. The decision offers relief to global commodity markets and may boost confidence in future U.S.-China cooperation.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: The easing of tariffs signals improving diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing.

  • US Economic Data: Potential agricultural export boosts could support U.S. trade balance data in coming months.

  • FOMC Outcome: A more dovish Fed may complement China’s pro-growth policies in supporting global demand.

  • Trade Policy: Clear positive—reduction in tariffs should ease tensions and aid global trade recovery.

  • Monetary Policy: PBOC’s accommodative stance aligns with fiscal easing to stimulate demand.


Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Positive sentiment for risk assets and commodities tied to U.S.-China trade.

  • Resistance: Key sentiment resistance at renewed risk appetite around equity markets.

  • Support: Support levels seen in commodities benefiting from agricultural rebound.

  • Forecast: Improved trade relations may provide a short-term lift to regional markets and currencies.


Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Optimistic, as investors welcome policy gestures from Beijing.

  • Catalysts: The official tariff adjustment on Nov. 10 and any reciprocal U.S. trade measures.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The British Pound plunged to fresh multi-week lows, trading near 1.3040, as selling pressure intensified amid renewed U.S. Dollar strength. The move reflects worsening U.K. growth sentiment and persistent market doubts over BoE’s rate outlook.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Political uncertainty around post-Brexit trade negotiations continues to cloud outlook.

  • US Economic Data: Stronger U.S. manufacturing and job data bolster the greenback’s dominance.

  • FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious rhetoric supports the Dollar over risk currencies.

  • Trade Policy: Weaker trade flows weigh on U.K. export expectations.

  • Monetary Policy: BoE’s reluctance to tighten further accelerates GBP downside momentum.


Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Strongly bearish below 1.3100.

  • Resistance: 1.3100 and 1.3170.

  • Support: 1.3000 and 1.2950.

  • Forecast: Continued pressure toward 1.2950 appears likely unless the U.S. Dollar weakens.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish, with traders favoring the Dollar as a safe bet amid global uncertainty.

  • Catalysts: U.K. GDP updates and BoE statements later this week could shift direction.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The New Zealand Dollar slumped below 0.5650 after data showed unemployment rising to a nine-year high, signaling deepening labor market weakness. The release sparked fresh selling as traders anticipate a dovish RBNZ tone in upcoming meetings.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Limited, but regional slowdown concerns weigh on sentiment.

  • US Economic Data: Robust U.S. figures continue to favor the greenback over weaker peers.

  • FOMC Outcome: A steady Fed stance reinforces Dollar demand.

  • Trade Policy: Ongoing trade recovery in China offers little relief to domestic weakness.

  • Monetary Policy: The RBNZ may adopt a softer outlook to support growth, pressuring NZD further.


Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bearish after breaking key psychological support.

  • Resistance: 0.5700 and 0.5740.

  • Support: 0.5620 and 0.5580.

  • Forecast: A deeper pullback toward 0.5580 appears likely amid continued selling pressure.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish, reflecting renewed fears of economic slowdown.

  • Catalysts: Upcoming RBNZ commentary and additional employment data will be closely watched.

Wrap-up

Overall, traders remained cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. data and ongoing political wrangling in Washington. With fiscal uncertainty mounting and China’s policy signals turning more constructive, currency markets may continue to see heightened volatility as the week unfolds.

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AMD Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: AI Chip Demand Meets Margin Focus | 4th November 2025

AMD Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: AI Chip Demand Meets Margin Focus | 4th November 2025

AMD’s AI Acceleration Test

AMD is set to report its Q3 2025 results on November 4, with investor attention locked on whether its booming AI-chip business, bolstered by new deals and data-centre momentum, can deliver strong numbers — and whether margins and valuation can keep pace. The coming quarter may show whether AMD is simply riding the AI wave or truly executing a longer-term transformation.

AMD Performance Snapshot

Estimated Revenue: ~US$8.7 billion (+~28% YoY)

Estimated Adjusted EPS: ~US$1.17 per share (+~27% YoY)

Guidance & Margin: AMD expects ~54% non-GAAP gross margin for Q3.

AMD Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast: Current Price & Context

AMD shares are trading near record highs (recent highs above ~$260) as the market rallies around its AI-chip momentum. Analysts continue to highlight that much of the upside is already priced in, making execution and margin progression key.

With revenue forecast at ~$8.7 billion and earnings per share at ~$1.17, the market will scrutinise whether AMD can deliver above these benchmarks and provide credible guidance for its next-stage growth, especially in the AI/data-centre segment.

Key Focus Areas

1.Data-Centre & AI Chip Momentum – AMD’s ramp of its Instinct MI350 series accelerators and broad adoption across major customers (including cloud and enterprise) are central to this quarter’s narrative.

2.Client & Gaming Segment Rebound – Beyond AI, growth in client CPUs and gaming remains important for diversification and stabilising overall revenue expansion.

3.Margins & Capital Discipline – After recent heavy investment and export-control impacts, margin improvement will be closely watched. Management’s ability to convert scale into profitability will matter.

4.Valuation & Execution Risk – With share-price gains already strong, the stock’s valuation reflects high expectations — any misstep may trigger downside.

5. Long-Term AI Contract Wins – Large-scale partnerships (e.g., with AI platform firms) and future pipeline wins could validate AMD’s positioning and expand its AI addressable market.

Technical and Market Outlook

Trend: Strong bullish sentiment, though with elevated risk given recent run-up

Resistance: ~$280-$300 region (near recent record highs)

Support: ~$230-$240 zone

Forecast: A solid beat and bullish forward guidance could propel shares toward $300+. Conversely, any margin or guidance disappointment could see a pull-back to ~$230-$240.

Investor Sentiment

Sentiment toward AMD is constructively positive, driven by its exposure to AI infrastructure and server-chip tailwinds. However, analysts caution that much of the growth story is already priced in and emphasise the importance of execution.

Wrap-up

AMD’s Q3 earnings release will serve as a critical checkpoint in its transition from chipmaker to AI-infrastructure powerhouse. While revenue growth appears poised for double digits, the market will reward clarity on margins, guidance, and pipeline strength. For investors, the question isn’t just how fast AMD is growing, but how well it can scale profitably and sustainably in the AI era.

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Uber Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Bookings Growth Meets Autonomous Ambitions | 4th November 2025

Uber Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Bookings Growth Meets Autonomous Ambitions | 4th November 2025

Uber’s Growth & Gear Shift

Uber Technologies is scheduled to report its Q3 2025 earnings after U.S. markets close on Tuesday, November 4. With ride-hailing and delivery volumes showing signs of recovery, investor focus has shifted to how well Uber can capitalise on this momentum — while simultaneously advancing its autonomous vehicle (AV) strategy and maintaining profitability in the face of heavy investment.

Uber Performance Snapshot

Analyst estimates point to gross bookings around US$48.97 billion, up from ~US$40.97 billion a year ago.

Revenue for 2025 is projected at about US$51.43 billion, implying ~16.9% growth year-on-year.

Adjusted EPS estimates vary; some compute around US$0.91 per share.

Uber Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast: Current Price & Context

Uber shares are currently trading in the region of US$100–US$105, reflecting cautious optimism around its rebound in bookings and potential upside from its AV partnerships. With gross bookings projected to be nearly US$49 billion, investors will watch whether the increased scale translates into accelerated profitability and how the autonomous segment begins to contribute to the long-term narrative.

Key Focus Areas

1.Gross Bookings Momentum & Delivery Recovery — With ride and delivery segments resurging, the scale of bookings growth will be a major performance anchor.

2.Autonomous & Mobility Partnerships — Investors will look for updates on Uber’s collaborations with companies like Waymo and NVIDIA Corporation (in the AV stack) to assess the “next-gen mobility” trajectory.

3.Profitability & Cost Leverage — With growth comes rising costs (drivers, logistics, tech). The margin outlook and operating leverage will matter as Uber scales.

4.Capital Allocation & Share Buyback — How Uber deploys its free cash flow — whether into growth, partnerships or buybacks — will influence investor sentiment.

5. Macro & Consumer Demand Sensitivity — As a platform exposed to consumer behaviour, macroeconomic conditions, and travel/delivery trends will impact performance.

Technical and Market Outlook

Trend: Moderately bullish — with upside potential if bookings beat expectations.

Resistance: ~$115

Support: ~$90–95

Forecast: A strong print could lift the stock toward ~$120+, but weak guidance or margin softness could see retest of the ~$90 level.

Investor Sentiment

Sentiment is cautiously optimistic: many believe Uber’s platform resilience is improving, yet the AV story and cost discipline remain significant risk factors. Institutional investors are watching for “proof of progress” rather than just bright headlines.

Wrap-up

Uber’s upcoming Q3 earnings report will be more than a numbers event — it’s potentially a reaffirmation of its transition from rebound to sustainable growth. The rise in bookings is encouraging, but meaningful gains will come only if Uber shows it can convert higher volume into improved margins and lay out a credible path for its AV and mobility business. For investors, the key question is: Is Uber back — and if so, how strong and how fast?

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Central Banks Drive FX Moves: RBA Holds, BoJ Hints at Hikes | 4th November 2025

Central Banks Drive FX Moves: RBA Holds, BoJ Hints at Hikes | 4th November 2025

RBA Holds, Yen Rises

Global currency markets opened the week on a cautious tone as central bank signals dominated sentiment. The Australian Dollar initially strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates steady at 3.6%, though gains were tempered by a stronger U.S. Dollar and renewed volatility in commodity prices. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen advanced as speculation grew over potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Elsewhere, the British Pound paused its recent slide, while the Canadian Dollar weakened amid softer crude oil prices and firm U.S. yields.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD steadied near 1.3150 after a prolonged downtrend, as the Pound found support from softer U.S. Treasury yields and short-term profit-taking on the Dollar. Market participants remain cautious ahead of key U.S. data, which could redefine expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Global market unease over Middle East tensions continues to boost demand for the U.S. Dollar as a defensive play.

  • US Economic Data: Investors await U.S. nonfarm payrolls and CPI data for signs of economic resilience.

  • FOMC Outcome: Fed officials’ hawkish tone limits Pound recovery potential.

  • Trade Policy: UK trade deficit concerns may weigh on Sterling’s long-term outlook.

  • Monetary Policy: The Bank of England is expected to maintain its cautious stance as inflation remains sticky.

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Downtrend moderates, with early signs of base formation.

  • Resistance: 1.3220

  • Support: 1.3080

  • Forecast: Consolidation likely before potential rebound toward 1.3200 if U.S. data disappoints.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Mixed, with traders hesitant to build fresh long positions ahead of U.S. data.

  • Catalysts: BoE commentary, U.S. labor market data, and risk sentiment shifts.

EUR/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/JPY slipped toward 177.00 as rising speculation about potential BoJ rate hikes strengthened the Yen. The Euro’s weakness was amplified by softer Eurozone manufacturing data, dampening risk appetite across the region.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing European energy security concerns limit Euro support.

  • US Economic Data: Limited direct impact but could shift global yield sentiment.

  • FOMC Outcome: A sustained hawkish Fed keeps risk sentiment fragile.

  • Trade Policy: Japan’s trade balance improvement adds confidence to Yen buyers.

  • Monetary Policy: BoJ officials signaling potential tightening weighed heavily on EUR/JPY.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bearish bias persists.

  • Resistance: 178.20

  • Support: 176.60

  • Forecast: Potential further downside toward 176.00 if BoJ rhetoric strengthens.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish amid rising BoJ rate expectations.

  • Catalysts: BoJ policy updates, Eurozone inflation figures.

AUD/NZD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/NZD hovered near 1.1480, its highest level since September 2022, as the Australian Dollar benefited from the RBA’s steady rate stance and a mildly upbeat tone on inflation control. The Kiwi lagged amid slower New Zealand growth expectations.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct influence but overall market caution supports carry trades.

  • US Economic Data: Indirectly influences risk appetite and commodity demand.

  • FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed limits broader AUD upside against USD but not NZD.

  • Trade Policy: Stable regional trade ties support AUD relative to NZD.

  • Monetary Policy: Divergence between RBA’s steady stance and RBNZ’s dovish tone favors AUD strength.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: trong uptrend continuation.

  • Resistance: 1.1500

  • Support: 1.1400

  • Forecast: Bullish momentum could extend if AUD maintains yield advantage.

     

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Optimistic, driven by strong AUD fundamentals.

  • Catalysts: RBA minutes, Australian retail sales, NZD GDP updates.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD traded above 1.4050 as the U.S. Dollar strengthened on firm yields and weaker oil prices weighed on the Canadian Dollar. Investors anticipate cautious tones from both the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC) this week.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Global oil supply uncertainty keeps CAD under pressure.

  • US Economic Data: Robust U.S. data reinforces Dollar demand.

  • FOMC Outcome: Fed’s hawkish bias favors USD resilience.

  • Trade Policy: U.S.-Canada trade flows remain stable but sensitive to energy prices.

  • Monetary Policy: BoC likely to stay neutral amid fragile domestic growth.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Uptrend remains intact.

  • Resistance: 1.4100

  • Support: 1.3980

  • Forecast: Potential test of 1.4100 if oil remains under pressure.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish USD bias.

  • Catalysts: Crude oil prices, U.S. ISM manufacturing data, BoC policy remarks.

AUD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/JPY slipped after the RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, triggering selling pressure on the Aussie. The pair currently trades near 96.50, as traders shift focus to Japan’s evolving rate outlook.

Key Drivers

  • Geopolitical Risks: Asia-Pacific trade stability provides mild support.

  • US Economic Data: Indirect impact via global risk sentiment.

  • FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed keeps JPY demand steady as a funding currency.

  • Trade Policy: Strong Japan export performance underpins Yen demand.

  • Monetary Policy: BoJ’s hawkish signals add downside pressure to AUD/JPY.

     

Technical Outlook

  • Trend: Bearish correction phase.

  • Resistance: 97.20

  • Support: 96.10

  • Forecast: Further weakness likely if BoJ rhetoric strengthens and AUD momentum fades.

Sentiment and Catalysts

  • Market Sentiment: Bearish due to divergent central bank tones.

  • Catalysts: RBA meeting minutes, BoJ rate policy commentary.

Wrap-up

Traders are now eyeing this week’s U.S. employment and inflation data for clearer clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. With policy divergence among major central banks becoming more pronounced, short-term volatility in FX markets is likely to remain elevated. The spotlight stays on the RBA’s forward guidance, BoJ policy shifts, and U.S. Dollar strength as key drivers shaping cross-asset sentiment through the week.

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Palantir Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: AI Surge vs Valuation Risk | 3rd November 2025

Palantir Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: AI Surge vs Valuation Risk | 3rd November 2025

Palantir’s Growth Test

Palantir is set to report its Q3 2025 results after the U.S. market close on November 3. The company has capitalised on strong demand for its AI-platform solutions, but with more than 150% share price gain year-to-date and elevated valuation multiples, this quarter could test how well Palantir translates momentum into sustainable value.

Palantir Performance Snapshot

Expected Revenue: ~US$1.09 billion (≈ 50% YoY growth)

Estimated Adjusted EPS: ~US$0.17 per share (≈ 70% YoY growth)

Commercial segment growth: ~56% YoY; Government segment growth: ~48% YoY

Palantir Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast

Current Price and Context

Palantir shares are trading around $215, just below recent highs, reflecting strong investor confidence in its AI momentum. Analysts expect continued revenue expansion, but with valuation stretched, the focus will shift toward margins and sustainability of commercial growth.

Key Focus Areas

1.AI Platform Expansion – The Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) remains Palantir’s biggest driver, with enterprise adoption accelerating across manufacturing, healthcare, and defense.

2.Commercial vs Government Mix – Rapid commercial growth is narrowing Palantir’s reliance on U.S. government contracts, a trend key to sustaining diversification.

3.Profitability and Margins – Investors will monitor whether gross margins remain above 80% and operating margins above 30%, confirming leverage from scaling software deployments.

4.Valuation Sensitivity – After a massive rally, Palantir trades at over 60× forward earnings; any sign of decelerating growth could spark volatility.

5. Guidance and Global Outlook – Updates on AI expansion into Europe and Asia and FY2026 revenue projections will shape near-term sentiment.

Technical and Market Outlook

Trend: Bullish but near overbought zone

Resistance: $220

Support: $185

Forecast: A strong earnings beat and upbeat FY2026 guidance could lift shares toward $225, while margin compression or weaker bookings may see pullback toward $185.

Investor Sentiment

Market sentiment remains constructive. Institutional flows show selective accumulation, but analysts caution that the stock’s valuation already prices in aggressive growth assumptions.

Wrap-up

Palantir’s upcoming earnings will be more than a growth report — it’s a credibility test for its AI transformation story. If management delivers clear evidence of durable margins and commercial traction, the stock could extend its impressive run. But any stumble in guidance or cost discipline may remind investors how high the expectations have become.

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Spotify Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: User Growth Meets Profit Reality | 3rd November 2025

Spotify Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: User Growth Meets Profit Reality | 3rd November 2025

Streams Up, Margins Thin

Spotify Technology (NYSE: SPOT) is set to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings this week, with investors watching closely for signs that strong subscriber momentum can offset mounting content and licensing costs. The streaming giant continues to expand its global footprint while navigating tighter margins amid fierce competition from Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Amazon.

Spotify Performance Snapshot

Spotify Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast

Current Price and Context

Spotify’s shares have traded in a narrow range ahead of the report, hovering near $265. Analysts project revenue of $4.25 billion, up roughly 12% year-on-year, while earnings per share are expected around $1.28. The company’s recent push toward premium pricing and podcast monetization could help sustain profitability, though rising operational expenses remain a concern.

Key Factors to Watch

1.Subscriber Growth & Engagement – Spotify’s paid subscriber base, expected to top 250 million, remains a primary growth engine. Active user metrics and premium conversion rates will be closely scrutinized.

2.Ad-Supported Segment Recovery – Improvements in advertising demand, especially from the US and European markets, could help offset slower ARPU growth.

3.Content Costs & Margins – Rising music licensing fees and podcast content investments continue to pressure gross margins, which analysts expect to hover near 28%.

4.AI and Personalization – Spotify’s growing use of AI-driven recommendation tools and custom playlist features could boost engagement and ad efficiency.

5. Outlook Guidance – Investors will look for updated commentary on FY2025 margin targets and any hints of strategic shifts in pricing or cost control.

Technical and Market Outlook

Spotify stock has maintained a mild uptrend, supported by its 50-day moving average and robust YTD gains.

Trend: Moderately bullish ahead of results

Resistance: $275.00

Support: $250.00

Forecast: A strong earnings beat could drive shares toward $280, while a weak margin outlook may trigger a pullback toward $245.

Investor Sentiment

Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Institutional flows suggest confidence in Spotify’s ability to balance growth and profitability, though analysts warn that any slowdown in user engagement could quickly weigh on near-term momentum.

Wrap-up

Spotify’s Q3 results will test its balance between scale and sustainability. Investors are less concerned about revenue beats and more focused on profitability trends and long-term margin improvement. The earnings release could define sentiment for the broader digital media sector heading into year-end.

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