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Today’s forex market action is defined by sharp moves among major currencies, as global economic data and central bank policy decisions drive volatility and shift investor sentiment. The US Dollar, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all reacted to a mix of new reports and official statements, setting the tone for traders worldwide.
The US Dollar Index has declined to near 100.15 in Friday’s Asian session, marking renewed weakness after mixed US jobs data. Uncertainty around the US labor market and potential rate cuts is weighing on the greenback, with traders awaiting more clarity from upcoming PMI releases.
Geopolitical Risks: No major new risks have impacted the DXY direction today.
US Economic Data: The US saw faster job creation but a higher unemployment rate; recent data was delayed due to a government shutdown, adding more uncertainty.
FOMC Outcome: Fed officials, including Cleveland’s Hammack, support keeping rates steady, with growing debate among members about balancing labor momentum and inflation.
Trade Policy: No new trade developments affecting the dollar are reported.
Monetary Policy: Current market odds of a Fed rate cut in December have dropped to 39%, down from 63% last week, signaling shifting expectations for easing.
Trend: The DXY shows a bearish bias, holding below key technical levels.
Resistance: First upside resistance is seen at 100.50.
Support: Immediate support sits at the 100.00 round number, with further downside possible.
Forecast: Continued uncertainty and cautious Fed comments may keep the index under pressure, with risks tilted toward further declines if upcoming data disappoints.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautious, with traders digesting mixed signals and waiting for further economic releases.
Catalysts: The next PMI print and Fed commentary will be crucial for near-term dollar direction.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded against the US Dollar (USD), currently trading around 0.6450, following two days of losses. Gains came after stronger-than-expected S&P Global PMI data, which signaled robust expansion in both manufacturing and services for November.
Geopolitical Risks: No significant new geopolitical developments are impacting the AUD today.
US Economic Data: Stronger US labor market data lends underlying support to the USD, partially limiting AUD gains.
Trade Policy: Stability in China’s loan prime rates and continued solid trade relations lend support to the AUD.
Trend: AUD/USD is consolidating, with a mild bullish bias after rebounding from the lower end of its recent range.
Forecast: Technicals favor more upside if AUD/USD can break above 0.6500; failure to do so risks renewed downside toward support levels.
Market Sentiment: Market participants are modestly positive on the AUD, buoyed by strong PMI numbers and resilient economic data from China.
Catalysts: Upcoming Chinese economic releases, RBA commentary, and additional global PMI data will drive the next moves.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades weaker, with USD/JPY recently at 157.25, reflecting ongoing pressure from central bank policy divergence. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted that Yen weakness is amplifying import costs and lifting consumer inflation to above-target levels.
Geopolitical Risks: No major new external threats affecting JPY movement today.
US Economic Data: Dollar movement continues to influence JPY crosses, but domestic drivers are stronger for now.
FOMC Outcome: US policy outlook remains a background factor; higher-for-longer US rates sustain pressure on the Yen.
Trend: USD/JPY remains in a long-term uptrend but is showing some intraday pullback from recent highs.
Resistance: Resistance is seen in the 158.00 area.
Support: Nearby support lies at 157.00, with potential for further downside if risk sentiment improves.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment: Investors are wary of ongoing Yen weakness and the possibility of new BoJ measures if inflation accelerates.
Catalysts: Upcoming BoJ statements, wage growth trends, and any government commentary on FX stability could spur further volatility.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the central reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0875 on Friday, slightly appreciating the yuan from the previous day’s fix of 7.0905. This move comes as the PBOC continues to carefully manage the currency amid modest economic growth and ongoing financial market reforms.
Geopolitical Risks: No immediate new geopolitical factors impacting today’s CNY setting, though general US-China relations remain a background concern.
US Economic Data: The mixed outlook for the US Dollar has contributed to CNY’s minor fluctuations.
FOMC Outcome: The dovish-to-neutral Fed tone affects broad USD flows but PBOC’s managed policy takes the lead here.
Trend: USD/CNY continues to trade within a carefully managed range, with the PBOC using daily fix adjustments to guide direction.
Resistance: Next resistance lies in the 7.1150 area, a recent high.
Support: Immediate support appears at the new central rate 7.0875, followed by the psychological round number at 7.0800.
Forecast: The pair is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, unless there is a surprise shift in either US or Chinese economic policy.
Market Sentiment: The mood is cautious, with traders following official signals and watching for signs of further PBOC intervention.
Catalysts: Upcoming China economic releases, global trade developments, and any shift in PBOC’s monetary stance could spur volatility.
The USD/CAD pair dipped below 1.4100 Friday, snapping a two-day rally and pulling back from a multi-week high. Despite the slight downside, the pair remains broadly supported by underlying US Dollar strength and softening Canadian inflation data.
Geopolitical Risks: No major new geopolitical developments driving price action today.
US Economic Data: Strong US Nonfarm Payroll data and a higher US Dollar Index continue to underpin USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: Uncertainty around the Fed’s rate cut path remains a key focus, as traders assess evolving signals from US policymakers.
Trade Policy: Not directly impacting USD/CAD at this time.
Trend: The pair retains a bullish medium-term trend, despite today’s intraday pullback.
Resistance:First resistance is seen at 1.4150.
Support: Key support is located at 1.4070, followed by 1.4000 round number.
Forecast: Downside seems limited unless Canadian retail sales or US PMI data surprise to the upside; otherwise, expect broad USD strength to persist.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment remains bullish on USD, with lingering caution about further Canadian Dollar weakness due to poor inflation and falling oil prices.
Catalysts: Key upcoming Canadian Retail Sales and US PMI releases, as well as any sharp moves in global oil prices.
With currencies in flux and central banks closely watched, market participants are recalibrating their positions in response to shifting fundamentals. Stay tuned for further developments as new economic data and policy updates continue to steer direction in the global forex landscape.
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Today’s trading landscape was defined by notable moves in both precious metals and major forex pairs, as global markets responded to fresh economic developments. Gold and silver registered gains amid anticipation around US labor data, while crude oil drifted higher on EIA inventory news. Currency pairs reflected shifting rate cut expectations and policy updates from China’s central bank.
Gold remains firm above $4,100, with prices edging higher, buoyed by safe-haven demand ahead of the delayed US September Nonfarm Payrolls report. The yellow metal continues to benefit from caution in broader markets as uncertainty lingers over US labor data release.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global uncertainties and conflict zones have driven investors into gold as a safe haven asset.
US Economic Data: The delayed NFP report is critical, as investors look for labor market cues to guide USD and Fed rate expectations.
FOMC Outcome: Recent Fed statements have reinforced the likelihood of rate pauses, supporting gold’s appeal.
Trade Policy: Trade tensions remain subdued, but any escalation can quickly shift demand for safe-haven gold.
Monetary Policy: Global central banks’ dovish stances enhance gold’s attractiveness against fiat currencies.
Trend: Gold maintains a bullish trend, consistently posting higher highs above major moving averages.
Resistance: The immediate resistance lies at $4,130, with further barriers likely near $4,150.
Support: Key support is seen at $4,085, with additional cushions around $4,050.
Forecast: Gold is poised to test higher levels, with a bullish tone unless a significantly strong US NFP reverses flows.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment stays positive for gold, underpinned by global uncertainty and stable monetary policy.
Catalysts: The upcoming NFP result and unexpected geopolitical developments will be the primary near-term drivers.
Silver trades near $50.00, finding support at the 200-period SMA on the H4 chart as traders weigh industrial demand against broader market uncertainty. The metal’s price stability mirrors a cautious yet constructive stance among investors.
Geopolitical Risks: Industrial metals like silver can benefit if instability disrupts supply chains.
US Economic Data: Industrial and employment numbers drive demand projections for silver’s uses in manufacturing.
Trade Policy: Stability in global trade keeps industrial demand supported, though tariffs could pressure prices.
Trend: Silver’s short-term view is neutral to slightly bullish, holding above its 200-SMA.
Forecast: Silver likely consolidates above support, with scope to rebound if tailwinds strengthen.
Market Sentiment: Market participants are cautiously optimistic, balancing industrial hope with macro headwinds.
Catalysts:Key catalysts include US jobs data, and supply-demand developments in manufacturing sectors.
WTI crude oil is drifting higher, trading just below $59.50 following a reported drawdown in EIA inventories. The move comes after a period of consolidation, as traders digest the implications of shrinking stockpiles.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions keep oil markets wary, with any flare-up likely to spike prices.
US Economic Data: EIA inventory numbers provide direction; robust demand signals buoy prices.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s policy steadiness helps stabilize oil price volatility.
Trend: WTI is trending higher, recovering from recent lows.
Resistance: Immediate resistance faces at $60.00, with next levels at $61.35.
Support: Support lingers at $58.75, just above last week’s consolidation floor.
Market Sentiment: Market is mildly bullish, supported by supply data and steady demand.
Catalysts: Further EIA reports and macro indicators on economic growth will set the tone.
USD/CAD trades steady above 1.4050, helped by fading Fed rate cut bets and recent softening in oil prices. The pair is consolidating after a volatile session driven by changing risk appetites and commodity flows.
Geopolitical Risks: North American policy and trade stability favor the USD/CAD’s current range.
US Economic Data: Key US releases impact the pair via USD strength or weakness.
FOMC Outcome: Rate pause expectations cement support for USD.
Trend: The pair has a neutral to slightly bullish bias, as USD demand holds up.
Resistance: Resistance found at 1.4100, recent highs.
Support: Support marked at 1.4015, the base of recent consolidations.
Forecast: USD/CAD likely remains above 1.4050 unless notable oil or USD moves break the range.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is steady, with market participants awaiting further policy clarity.
Catalysts: US jobs report and oil price behavior will steer near-term direction.
The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0905, slightly higher than the previous 7.0872, reflecting the central bank’s ongoing management of yuan stability. The move comes as China seeks to balance currency flexibility with market expectations.
Geopolitical Risks: US-China relations and global investor flows influence yuan sentiment strongly.
US Economic Data: Broad dollar strength or weakness transmits into USD/CNY levels.
FOMC Outcome: Fed policy continues to shape USD trends, indirectly steering CNY movements.
Trade Policy: Evolving trade talks and tariffs with the US remain crucial.
Trend: USD/CNY maintains a sideways bias, bracketed by PBOC actions.
Resistance:Immediate resistance near 7.1000, a recent cap.
Support: First support lies at 7.0800, recent local lows.
Forecast: The pair is likely to oscillate within a narrow range unless a catalyst prompts a policy or sentiment shift.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, as traders weigh PBOC policy signaling.
Catalysts: US economic releases and PBOC’s daily fix will set short-term direction.
In summary, market sentiment leaned cautiously optimistic with metals and oil posting advances, and FX pairs showing resilience. Continued scrutiny of economic indicators and central bank decisions will remain pivotal for traders navigating these dynamic trends.
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Today’s global market session is marked by cautious moves across major forex pairs and renewed focus on inflation trends as traders await key signals from the upcoming Fed Minutes. With interest rate expectations in the spotlight and central bank policy tightening debated globally, the US Dollar holds steady, European data drives sentiment, and commodity-linked currencies react to shifting economic narratives. Below are five key headline developments impacting the financial landscape.
EUR/USD is currently trading just under 1.1600, consolidating after a recent decline. Dollar strength persists amid fading expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing uncertainty in Eastern Europe exerts mild downside pressure.
US Economic Data: Last week’s slightly firmer US CPI figures supported the dollar.
FOMC Outcome: Traders are bracing for hawkish Fed Minutes with limited rate cut signals.
Trade Policy: Minimal eurozone-US trade headlines, leaving flows stable.
Monetary Policy: ECB’s cautious tone contrasts with steady Fed rhetoric.
Trend: Sideways to mildly bearish below 1.1600.
Resistance: 1.1620/1.1650.
Support: 1.1550/1.1500.
Forecast: Likely to stay within range, awaiting Fed cues.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, with limited conviction until FOMC signals.
Catalysts: Fed Minutes, US data, ECB commentary.
GBP/USD hovers near 1.2500 as traders anticipate fresh inflation data. The market expects headline CPI to finally tick down, easing some pressure on the Bank of England.
Geopolitical Risks: Domestic UK politics stable, but global risks linger.
US Economic Data: Dollar movement offers competing influence on GBP.
Trade Policy: No major Brexit headlines; import costs in focus.
Trend: Neutral to slightly weaker if inflation falls as expected.
Forecast: May dip gently on softer CPI, watching for BOE cues.
Market Sentiment: Guarded, with GBP bulls cautious pre-data.
Catalysts:UK CPI release, BOE remarks.
USD/CAD tests 1.4000 as a sharp drop in oil prices lifts the pair. Canadian dollar weakness compounds on broad US dollar strength.
Geopolitical Risks: Oil market is sensitive to Middle East headlines.
US Economic Data: Stronger US numbers reinforce USD/CAD uptrend.
FOMC Outcome: Delay in US easing supports pair.
Trend: Bullish above 1.3950.
Resistance: 1.4050/1.4100.
Support: 1.3950/1.3880.
Market Sentiment: Bullish for USD/CAD short term.
Catalysts: Oil price moves, Canadian/US economic releases.
USD/JPY remains elevated near multi-month highs, trading above 155.00 after a prolonged rally. The Yen remains pressured by weak domestic data and fiscal anxieties.
Geopolitical Risks: Regional security issues support safe-haven flows but haven’t lifted the Yen.
US Economic Data: US strength weighs vs. JPY.
FOMC Outcome: FHawkish tone adds to Yen weakness.
Trend: Bullish, USD/JPY uptrend intact.
Resistance: 156.00/156.50.
Support: 154.50/153.80.
Forecast: Risks further gains unless BoJ intervenes or Fed pivots.
Market Sentiment: Bearish on JPY.
Catalysts: BoJ policy clues, US yields, intervention speculation.
The DXY trades just over 99.50, recovering from last week’s dip. Market participants are positioning cautiously ahead of the Fed’s latest minutes.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited impact, wider markets watch for event risk.
US Economic Data: CPI, retail sales provided upside for USD.
FOMC Outcome: Anticipated hawkish messaging keeps DXY bid.
Trade Policy: US trade deficit in focus but overshadowed by Fed story.
Trend: Consolidation to mild bullish.
Resistance:100.00/100.40.
Support: 99.20/98.80.
Forecast: Sideways to slightly higher ahead of FOMC release.
Market Sentiment: Defensive USD positioning.
Catalysts: Fed Minutes, upcoming US data.
As we look ahead, all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, with today’s moves providing a snapshot of how markets are positioning amid inflation updates and pivotal currency shifts. Staying agile and informed will be essential as volatility rises and traders react to new information. For Moneta Markets clients, now’s the time to monitor central bank signals and price action as momentum continues to build heading into the next trading session.
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NVIDIA is set to report its Q3 FY2026 earnings on November 19, 2025 (after market close). With the company positioned at the heart of the AI infrastructure boom — thanks to its Blackwell platform and surging data‑centre demand — all eyes are on whether the headline numbers can justify the lofty valuation and navigate the emerging constraints in supply, China exposure and power infrastructure.
• Estimated total revenue of ~US$54.0 billion (±2%), representing ~50‑56% YoY growth.
•Expected adjusted EPS around US$1.24‑1.25 per share.
• Data‑centre segment expected to dominate revenue, with an estimate near US$48.5 billion.
NVIDIA’s shares currently trade near the US$185‑US$200 range, reflecting the market’s expectation of strong AI‑driven growth but also the risk embedded in that expectation. With consensus forecasts for revenue around US$54 billion and EPS near US$1.25, the key for investors will be not just hitting those numbers, but the margin profile, supply constraints (especially Blackwell chip ramp and U.S.‑China export issues) and guidance for FY2027 and beyond.
1.Blackwell Chip Ramp & Supply Chain — The next‑generation “Blackwell” architecture is expected to drive major data‑centre wins. Any hiccup in ramp‑up or supply constraints could raise red flags.
2. Data‑Centre Revenue Momentum — With hyperscalers and enterprise AI infrastructure spending growing, the data‑centre segment remains the heartbeat of NVIDIA’s growth. Investors will watch for sequential acceleration.
3. Margin & Power/Infrastructure Constraints — Despite strong demand, gross margin guidance (~73%‑74%) and power/infrastructure limits (the “power wall” in data centres) are headwinds to watch.
4. China Exposure & Geopolitical Risks — Exclusion of certain Chinese shipments (e.g., H20 chips) in guidance means China remains a wildcard for upside or risk.
5. Valuation & Execution Risk — With much of the AI story priced in, execution matters more than ever. Even a strong beat may underwhelm if guidance or tone disappoints.
Trend: Bullish but with elevated risk given high expectations and recent run‑up
Resistance: ~US$220‑US$230
Support: ~US$170‑US$180
Forecast: A strong earnings beat, favourable guidance and robust AI demand could push the shares toward ~$230+. Conversely, any supply chain slip, margin softness or negative tone could test support near ~$170.
Market sentiment remains strongly bullish, driven by NVIDIA’s position at the center of the AI boom. Yet there’s a growing undercurrent of caution: analysts and investors are now more focused on longer‑term visibility and structural constraints rather than just near‑term beats.
NVIDIA’s upcoming Q3 report is key not just for the company, but for the entire AI infrastructure narrative. With revenue expectations sky‑high and the company sitting at the heart of the generative AI build‑out, the question becomes: Can NVIDIA convert scale into sustained profitability and guide confidently into 2027? A strong result may reaffirm its leadership status — but in this case, even minor missteps could amplify investor caution.
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The Australian Dollar has come under renewed pressure today, retreating further against its global peers. Market participants are closely dissecting the latest RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Minutes, which reveal the central bank’s continued cautious stance amid mounting economic uncertainties. This tone from policymakers has cast a shadow over the currency, limiting upside momentum despite some signs of resilience in the broader markets.
Gold is trading just below $4,050 after a recent sharp decline. The drop was largely driven by USD strength and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, undermining safe-haven demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Persistent geopolitical uncertainties typically support gold demand, but recent events have been countered by strong USD flows.
US Economic Data: Robust US economic data continues to lift the USD, putting pressure on gold prices.
FOMC Outcome: Recent Fed commentary suggests more tightening could be ahead, which is negative for non-yielding assets like gold.
Trade Policy: No significant gold-specific trade headlines, but general risk aversion has been USD-positive.
Monetary Policy: Tighter global monetary policy conditions and especially a hawkish Fed have held gold lower.
Trend: Gold entered a corrective phase, currently consolidating after a steep drawdown from all-time highs.
Resistance: Immediate resistance at $4,125 and $4,230, with sellers active on rallies.
Support: First key support at $4,050, then $3,885; a deeper correction could see prices approach $3,880-$3,850.
Forecast: Short-term, further downside toward $3,885 is possible before stabilization or potential rebound. Sustaining above $4,125 would revive bullish momentum.
Market Sentiment: Currently cautious; traders are defensive after recent price breakdown.
Catalysts: US data releases, Fed meeting minutes, and shifts in USD strength will be influential.
AUD remains under pressure at around 0.6510, with the RBA Minutes highlighting a wait-and-see approach. This “cautious stance” gave no immediate hawkish cues, disappointing bullish traders.
Geopolitical Risks: Risk-off market mood weighs on AUD due to its status as a risk-sensitive currency.
US Economic Data: Stronger US data and resilient USD keep a lid on AUD gains.
Trade Policy: Trade relations uncertainty and commodity price volatility also limit upside.
Trend: Bias remains bearish below 0.6550, with sell rallies dominating.
Forecast: Consolidation above 0.6500 is possible, but overall picture favors weakness.
Market Sentiment: Bearish, with no significant buyers stepping in.
Catalysts:Next Australian employment data and US Dollar dynamics will be pivotal.
NZD/USD is trading near 0.5650, pressured by a dovish RBNZ and weaker domestic growth, overshadowing positive news about US tariff relief.
Geopolitical Risks: Global growth uncertainties and trade headlines are downside risks for NZD.
US Economic Data: Strong US readings favor the greenback, discouraging NZD strength.
FOMC Outcome: Ongoing hawkishness from the Fed adds selling pressure to NZD.
Trend: Dominant downtrend; rallies seen as opportunities for renewed selling.
Resistance: Initial resistance at 0.5700, with 0.5760 (50-day EMA) above.
Support: Key support at 0.5580.
Market Sentiment: Bearish, with optimism fading on weak growth and soft RBNZ stance.
Catalysts: Upcoming NZ data and any shift from the RBNZ will be closely watched.
Japan announced a stimulus package exceeding ¥17 trillion (about $110 billion) to counter economic contraction, as Q3 GDP figures disappointed. Yen weakness persists amid these fiscal moves.
Geopolitical Risks: Japan’s reliance on trade and recent China’s slowdown are weighing on sentiment.
US Economic Data: Strong US data keeps USD/JPY elevated.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s hawkish stance limits Yen upside.
Trend: Yen remains in a weakening trend versus the USD.
Resistance: Resistance above 152.00 for USD/JPY.
Support: Support near 149.00.
Forecast: Continued Yen softness expected as stimulus takes effect; sharp USD pullback would be required for reversal.
Market Sentiment: Bearish on Yen, as stimulus and global rate divergence drive flows.
Catalysts: Fiscal stimulus implementation and upcoming BoJ comments.
GBP/JPY surged to a five-week high near 204.50, underpinned by continued bullish momentum and steady support at lower levels.
Geopolitical Risks: No major new UK or Japan headlines, but stable risk sentiment helps GBP/JPY buyers.
US Economic Data: Indirectly supportive with global rates environment driving carry trades.
FOMC Outcome: Steady Fed, plus divergence with BoJ, feeds the yen’s weakness.
Trade Policy: No significant trade impact today.
Trend: Bullish; the pair continues to make higher highs.
Resistance:Near-term resistance at 204.65.
Support: Key support at 201.70 remains firm.
Forecast: Targeting further gains to 204.65 and possibly 205.25 as long as support holds.
Market Sentiment: Optimistic, with strong buying interest upon dips.
Catalysts: UK data and BoJ statements could affect momentum.
In summary, the cautious approach signaled by the RBA in its latest communication has kept the Australian Dollar on the defensive. Traders remain watchful for upcoming data releases and policy updates, as further clues on Australia’s economic outlook may sway sentiment. For now, the AUD’s path seems set for continued volatility, shaped by central bank caution and shifting global dynamics.
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Global markets opened the week with a firmer US Dollar as fading global rate-cut expectations shifted sentiment toward safety and yield stability. The Greenback strengthened across major pairs, supported by resilient US data and persistent uncertainty around economic momentum in Europe, the UK, and China. Risk currencies such as the NZD, GBP, and EUR faced renewed pressure, while commodity-linked FX lagged amid softer oil prices. With central banks turning more cautious and investors dialing back aggressive easing bets, the USD continues to draw steady demand heading into the mid-week session.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5670, struggling to extend last week’s recovery as renewed USD safe-haven demand pressures the pair. The Kiwi remains below its one-week high as investors shift toward the Greenback amid softer risk sentiment and fading Fed rate-cut expectations.
Geopolitical Risks: Global geopolitical uncertainty continues to support the USD, limiting upside for risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD.
US Economic Data: Steady US data has reinforced USD demand, contrasting with subdued New Zealand activity indicators.
FOMC Outcome: Reduced expectations for early Fed rate cuts weigh on NZD as the yield gap favors the USD.
Trade Policy: Mixed Chinese trade signals weaken Kiwi outlook given New Zealand’s export dependency.
Monetary Policy: The RBNZ’s on-hold stance offers little support compared to a more resilient Federal Reserve.
Trend: Momentum has turned slightly bearish after failing to break above 0.5700.
Resistance: Initial resistance lies at 0.5700, followed by 0.5740.
Support: Key support rests at 0.5630, with deeper support at 0.5600.
Forecast: NZD/USD may remain under pressure unless risk sentiment improves or the USD eases.
Market Sentiment: Risk appetite remains soft, favoring defensive USD positioning.
Catalysts: Upcoming US retail sales and Chinese activity data could determine short-term direction.
EUR/USD has declined toward 1.1600 as markets scale back expectations for aggressive Fed easing, supporting a broader USD recovery. The Euro remains fragile after weak Eurozone data reinforced concerns about slowing regional growth.
Geopolitical Risks: Persistent risks in Europe and Middle East tensions continue to impact the Euro’s stability.
US Economic Data: Stronger US data widens divergence and supports further downside in EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Global trade moderation weighs on Eurozone export momentum.
Trend: Structure remains bearish below the 50-day SMA.
Forecast: EUR/USD may extend losses unless economic data from Europe improves.
Market Sentiment: Bearish sentiment persists with traders favoring USD strength.
Catalysts:Eurozone GDP and US inflation expectations are key upcoming drivers.
GBP/USD trades near 1.3150, extending losses as weak UK data fuels expectations of earlier BoE rate cuts. The pair remains under pressure as the USD strengthens and investors reduce risk exposure.
Geopolitical Risks: UK-specific political and fiscal uncertainties weigh further on Sterling.
US Economic Data: A resilient US backdrop boosts USD demand at the expense of GBP.
FOMC Outcome: Reduced Fed easing bets widen yield differentials against the Pound.
Trend: Momentum remains bearish after repeated failures to reclaim 1.3200.
Resistance: Resistance at 1.3200, then 1.3250.
Support: Next supports lie at 1.3100 and 1.3050.
Market Sentiment: Traders favor short GBP positions amid soft economic projections.
Catalysts: UK CPI, BoE commentary, and US data points.
The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0816, slightly stronger than the previous fix of 7.0825. The adjustment signals the central bank’s continued intention to stabilize the Yuan amid moderate economic signals from China.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing regional tensions remain a background factor influencing capital flows.
US Economic Data: Firm US data keeps USD/CNY supported despite PBOC stabilization efforts.
FOMC Outcome: Less aggressive Fed easing expectations maintain upward pressure on the pair.
Trend: USD/CNY maintains a stable but slightly upward trajectory.
Resistance: Resistance forms at 7.0900, then 7.1000.
Support: Key support at 7.0700, followed by 7.0600.
Forecast: Pair likely stays range-bound unless China’s data significantly improves.
Market Sentiment: Neutral–cautious as traders assess China’s economic momentum.
Catalysts: Chinese industrial production and US macro releases.
USD/CAD holds firm near 1.4050, benefiting from a stronger USD and declining crude oil prices. The softer oil backdrop limits CAD upside, keeping the pair anchored to weekly highs.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East and supply-chain uncertainties continue to weigh on oil-linked currencies.
US Economic Data: Steady US prints reinforce USD demand, supporting USD/CAD.
FOMC Outcome: Moderating Fed cut expectations maintain USD strength relative to CAD.
Trade Policy: Reduced global trade momentum affects Canada’s export outlook.
Trend: Bias remains bullish above the 1.4000 psychological mark.
Resistance: Immediate resistance at 1.4080, then 1.4120.
Support: Support lies at 1.4000 and 1.3960.
Forecast: USD/CAD may attempt further gains if oil prices remain under pressure.
Market Sentiment: USD-positive as investors seek stability in a cautious environment.
Catalysts: Oil inventory data, Canadian jobs releases, and US consumer sentiment.
The US Dollar maintains the upper hand as markets reassess global monetary trajectories and brace for slower policy easing across major economies. Weak UK and Eurozone data, along with mixed Chinese signals, kept risk sentiment tepid and favored defensive flows into the Greenback. As traders monitor incoming US releases and central bank commentary, currency moves are likely to stay closely tied to shifting rate expectations and broader macro uncertainty. Stay tuned as the USD remains the key driver shaping market direction in the sessions ahead.
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Asian markets opened Thursday with a broadly constructive tone as fresh signals from China helped stabilize risk sentiment across currencies. The PBoC’s slightly stronger-than-expected yuan fixing, along with mixed but steady Chinese data, provided enough support to lift high-beta currencies such as the AUD and NZD. Meanwhile, the USD eased modestly, allowing major pairs to find short-term footing ahead of a light US data session. With Asian FX responding directly to shifts in China’s policy stance, today’s market narrative leans firmly toward improving risk appetite across the region.
USD/CNY trades slightly lower after the PBoC set the daily reference rate at 7.0825, stronger than the previous 7.0865. The firmer fixing reflects the central bank’s continued effort to stabilize the yuan amid uneven recovery momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: China’s trade tensions remain contained, allowing markets to focus on domestic stabilization.
US Economic Data: Softer USD ahead of upcoming US releases offers short-term relief for the yuan.
FOMC Outcome: Fed easing expectations limit USD upside against Asia FX.
Trade Policy: Beijing’s targeted measures aim to attract capital inflows and support export competitiveness.
Monetary Policy: PBoC’s managed approach maintains yuan stability without aggressive intervention.
Trend: Slight downward bias as yuan strengthens modestly.
Resistance: 7.0900
Support: 7.0700
Forecast: Further downside is possible if PBoC continues with firmer fixings.
Market Sentiment: Stability-focused, mildly bearish USD/CNY.
Catalysts: Future PBoC fixings, China economic data, USD momentum.
NZD/USD holds above 0.5650 as mixed but steady Chinese data supports risk appetite. Improved sentiment around China’s growth outlook is lifting antipodean currencies.
Geopolitical Risks: Stabilizing China–US relations reduce risk aversion for exporters like New Zealand.
US Economic Data: A softer USD restricts downside, allowing the pair to stay bid.
Trade Policy: China’s policy signals help revive demand expectations, benefiting NZ trade flows.
Trend: Mild bullish momentum above 0.5650.
Forecast: Upside continuation favored if risk sentiment holds.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on, supportive for NZD.
Catalysts: China data, US Dollar direction, broader commodity sentiment.
AUD/USD remains firm after China’s latest economic indicators showed steady performance, boosting regional confidence. The Aussie benefits directly from improved expectations for Chinese demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing trade tensions continue to help AUD stabilize.
US Economic Data: DXY softness keeps AUD elevated.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed outlook enhances AUD’s appeal.
Trend: Gradual upside bias.
Resistance: 0.6620
Support: 0.6530
Market Sentiment: Constructive for AUD.
Catalysts: China economic releases, commodity flows, US data.
USD/JPY remains near multi-month highs as weak yen dynamics persist. Comments from Japan’s Kiuchi highlighted concerns that a soft yen could lift CPI via import costs, signaling limited policy tightening ahead.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable risk backdrop keeps safe-haven demand muted.
US Economic Data: USD strength capped but still supportive relative to JPY.
FOMC Outcome: Fed easing limits aggressive USD/JPY upside, but yield differentials remain wide.
Trend: Strong bullish continuation.
Resistance: 154.80
Support: 153.50
Forecast: Pair may retest highs if BoJ remains passive.
Market Sentiment: Bearish JPY.
Catalysts: BoJ statements, inflation indicators, US yields.
EUR/USD trades just below the mid-1.1600s as the pair struggles to break above its 50-day SMA. A weaker USD underpins the euro, but momentum remains limited.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable European landscape keeps EUR steady.
US Economic Data: A softer USD favors the euro’s consolidation.
FOMC Outcome: Fed dovishness supports moderate EUR upside.
Trade Policy: No major EU–US developments, keeping price action technical.
Trend: Neutral-to-bullish consolidation.
Resistance:1.1650
Support: 1.1580
Forecast: Break above the 50-day SMA may trigger fresh bullish momentum.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously positive for EUR.
Catalysts: ECB commentary, US inflation, technical breakout levels.
Markets remain cautiously optimistic as China’s policy signals continue to shape early-session flows, lending support to risk currencies while keeping the USD on the defensive. If Chinese data stabilizes further, the AUD and NZD could extend their upward bias, while the EUR and JPY will stay sensitive to broader shifts in sentiment and yield expectations. For now, traders are positioning around a more supportive Asian backdrop, awaiting fresh catalysts that could confirm whether today’s risk-friendly tone carries into the global session.
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Global markets opened Wednesday with a renewed appetite for metals, as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut continued to drive investor sentiment. Gold extended its rally toward the $4,200 mark, while Silver hovered near a four-week high, both supported by easing U.S. yields and a softer dollar. The prospect of lower borrowing costs boosted the appeal of non-yielding assets, even as risk sentiment stayed cautiously positive across equity markets.
Elsewhere, Australia’s labor market data showed a slight decline in unemployment, reinforcing the RBA’s balanced stance, while China’s PBOC maintained a steady yuan fixing, signaling stability amid broader market optimism. In the UK, upcoming GDP figures are expected to show modest growth, keeping BoE policy bets tilted toward a dovish bias.
Gold traded near $4,180, extending its climb to a three-week high as markets priced in stronger odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in coming months. Softer U.S. Treasury yields and a subdued Dollar Index provided the perfect setup for bulls to sustain momentum, though profit-taking looms at higher levels.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin bullion’s safe-demand appeal.
US Economic Data: Weaker labor data and moderating inflation have reinforced dovish Fed expectations.
FOMC Outcome: Markets increasingly anticipate a rate cut by early 2026, which supports non-yielding metals.
Trade Policy: Steady China-U.S. relations and solid physical demand from Asia have lent support.
Monetary Policy: Global central banks’ dovish pivot keeps real yields under pressure, aiding gold’s bid.
Trend: Strong bullish momentum above key moving averages.
Resistance: $4,200 and $4,230.
Support: $4,130 and $4,080.
Forecast: Gold may consolidate above $4,150, with potential to retest $4,200 if yields stay soft.
Market Sentiment: Strongly bullish but cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data.
Catalysts: Fed commentary, U.S. CPI revisions, and central bank gold purchases.
Silver consolidated near $52.80, hovering close to a four-week peak. The metal benefited from a broad rise in industrial and precious metal demand as investors balanced risk exposure with rate-cut optimism.
Geopolitical Risks: Calm in major industrial regions has shifted focus back to demand fundamentals.
US Economic Data: A softer U.S. Dollar and cooling labor momentum support the rebound in metals.
Trade Policy: China’s resilient manufacturing data hints at improved industrial consumption.
Trend: Uptrend remains intact above short-term moving averages.
Forecast: Silver may stay supported above $52.00, with potential to retest the $53.50 region.
Market Sentiment: Bullish, driven by dovish Fed tone and steady physical demand.
Catalysts: Industrial production figures and Fed meeting minutes.
The Aussie traded near $0.6570, slightly weaker after mixed domestic employment data. While the RBA held rates steady, investors remain cautious amid China’s slowing trade performance and fluctuating risk appetite.
Geopolitical Risks: Regional growth uncertainty limits strong Aussie upside.
US Economic Data: A softer U.S. labor market offsets some of the greenback’s strength.
FOMC Outcome: Rate cut expectations have narrowed yield differentials, mildly supporting the Aussie.
Trend: Neutral to slightly bearish.
Resistance: 0.6610 and 0.6650.
Support: 0.6520 and 0.6480.
Market Sentiment: Neutral, awaiting fresh direction from Chinese trade figures.
Catalysts: Australian jobs report and U.S. inflation outlook.
The PBOC set the yuan midpoint at 7.0865, signaling a measured approach to currency management. The fixing was slightly weaker, reflecting modest capital outflow pressures amid a stronger U.S. Dollar.
Geopolitical Risks: Global trade stability supports China’s cautious FX policy.
US Economic Data: Resilient U.S. numbers limit CNY strength.
FOMC Outcome: Anticipated Fed rate cuts narrow yield spreads, providing slight relief for the yuan.
Trend: Mildly bearish for CNY (USD/CNY steady).
Resistance: 7.0950 and 7.1000.
Support: 7.0800 and 7.0650.
Forecast: The pair may trade range-bound near 7.08–7.10 as China prioritizes stability.
Market Sentiment: Neutral with a slight bullish bias for USD.
Catalysts: PBOC liquidity moves and U.S. Treasury yields.
The Pound held near 1.2760, showing limited volatility ahead of the UK’s Q3 GDP report. Investors expect a modest recovery, though slowing consumer demand and BoE dovish expectations cap major gains.
Geopolitical Risks: Political uncertainty and trade tensions within Europe dampen sentiment.
US Economic Data: Softer dollar provides temporary support for the pair.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed may lend near-term relief to GBP/USD.
Trade Policy: Brexit-related trade normalization continues but growth momentum lags.
Trend: Sideways with mild bullish bias.
Resistance:1.2820 and 1.2870.
Support: 1.2700 and 1.2650.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.2800 if GDP data meets expectations.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish ahead of UK GDP data.
Catalysts: UK growth figures, BoE commentary, and U.S. inflation updates.
Precious metals outperformed as Fed rate cut expectations deepened, while the U.S. Dollar softened against major counterparts. Commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi traded mixed amid diverging local data, while oil steadied on stable demand signals. With U.S. inflation trends and Fed commentary still steering sentiment, traders will watch closely whether momentum in gold and silver can extend further into week’s end.
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Global markets opened cautiously higher on Wednesday as optimism surrounding the potential end of the prolonged U.S. government shutdown lifted risk appetite. Oil prices steadied above $60 per barrel, supported by improving demand sentiment and relief that political gridlock in Washington may soon ease. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar edged up slightly, while safe-haven assets like Gold and the Yen softened amid renewed hopes of government reopening.
Asian currencies traded mixed, with the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen under mild pressure, while the U.S. Dollar Index stabilized near 99.50. Market participants now turn their focus to upcoming U.S. inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for fresh policy direction.
Gold trades near $4,010, easing from a three-week high as risk appetite improves following signs that the U.S. government shutdown could soon end. However, underlying concerns about slowing global growth and dovish Fed expectations continue to offer a floor for the yellow metal.
Geopolitical Risks: Political relief from the U.S. shutdown reduces safe-haven flows.
US Economic Data: Traders await CPI data for clues on inflation trajectory.
FOMC Outcome: Fed expected to maintain a cautious stance as growth moderates.
Trade Policy: Easing political uncertainty may support modest risk recovery.
Monetary Policy: Market still prices in potential Fed rate cuts for early 2026.
Trend: Consolidation above $4,000 with mild downside bias.
Resistance: $4,045
Support: $3,985
Forecast: Gold may stay range-bound as improving sentiment tempers safe-haven demand.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral as risk mood improves.
Catalysts: Upcoming U.S. CPI and Fed commentary to dictate next move.
WTI holds modest gains above $60.50, buoyed by optimism over the potential resolution of the U.S. shutdown and improved global risk sentiment. However, higher U.S. inventories continue to limit further upside momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing Middle East tensions still support risk premium.
US Economic Data: Reopening hopes may lift fuel demand outlook.
Trade Policy: China’s steady demand outlook underpins price stability.
Trend: Mild bullish bias above $60.00.
Forecast: Oil may extend gains if shutdown officially ends this week.
Market Sentiment: Improving amid risk-on tone.
Catalysts: U.S. inventory data and shutdown resolution headlines.
The U.S. Dollar Index trades near 99.50, posting mild gains as investors price in a smoother economic path if the government reopens soon. However, dovish Fed expectations and subdued Treasury yields cap upside potential.
Geopolitical Risks: Relief over political gridlock offers mild support.
US Economic Data: CPI and retail sales data will guide short-term direction.
FOMC Outcome: Market expects steady policy with bias toward easing in 2026.
Trend: Neutral to mildly bullish above 99.30.
Resistance: 99.80
Support: 99.10
Market Sentiment: Balanced risk tone supports mild USD demand.
Catalysts: U.S. CPI release and shutdown resolution timeline.
AUD/USD extends losses near 0.6530, pressured by a firmer U.S. Dollar and cautious tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia. A recovery in global sentiment has failed to lift the Aussie meaningfully amid lower Chinese demand expectations.
Geopolitical Risks: Reopening of the U.S. government boosts global confidence but not enough to support AUD.
US Economic Data: Positive U.S. data favors USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: Fed caution limits AUD/USD rebound potential.
Trend: Bearish below 0.6550.
Resistance: 0.6570
Support: 0.6500
Forecast: AUD/USD likely to remain under pressure until China data improves.
Market Sentiment: Mildly bearish.
Catalysts: Chinese economic indicators and RBA commentary.
USD/JPY trades near 153.90, as the Yen remains soft amid risk-on market tone and lingering doubts about the Bank of Japan’s tightening timeline. Investors continue to favor the dollar as yields stabilize.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing U.S. tensions reduce safe-haven yen demand.
US Economic Data: Focus on CPI and consumer sentiment readings.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish bias keeps USD/JPY supported above 153.50.
Trade Policy: Stable trade outlook limits volatility.
Trend: Uptrend intact above 153.50.
Resistance:154.20
Support: 153.40
Forecast: USD/JPY may retest highs if risk appetite persists.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on, favoring USD strength.
Catalysts: BoJ policy tone and U.S. data prints.
Oil markets found some stability as expectations of a U.S. government reopening helped calm investor nerves and bolstered energy sentiment. The U.S. Dollar regained modest strength, while risk assets showed a more balanced tone ahead of key U.S. data releases. Overall, the easing political tension may provide short-term relief for markets, but traders remain cautious as the Fed’s next policy signals and inflation figures come into sharper focus.
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Disney is poised to report its Q3 2025 results, with investor focus on how its theme‑parks and experiences segments are powering growth even as its streaming business shifts into profitability and matures. While total revenue is growing modestly, the underlying strength in parks and the margin turn in direct‑to‑consumer remain key themes.
• Revenues rose ~2% year‑on‑year to US$23.7 billion.
• Adjusted EPS increased ~16% to US$1.61.
• Streaming (Disney+ & Hulu) subscribers reached ~183 million, up ~2.6 million vs prior quarter.
Disney’s shares are trading around US$110‑US$120, reflecting the market’s recognition of its diversified business model — especially the strength of its Experiences segment (theme parks, resorts, cruise lines). With modest top‑line growth but improving margins and a clearer path for its streaming platform, the key question is whether the company can sustain the momentum into FY2026 while managing cost pressures and competitive risks.
1. Experiences & Parks Momentum – The Parks & Experiences business saw double‑digit growth in operating income, reflecting strong consumer spending and global expansion.
2. Streaming Profitability Transition – With the direct‑to‑consumer segment now posting operating income, observers will watch metrics like ARPU, churn, and the integration of Hulu and Disney+.
3. Content & Sports Rights Costs – As Disney invests in live sports (ESPN), major content releases, and international expansion, margin pressure remains a risk.
4. Guidance & Subscriber Growth – Forward guidance on Disney+ and Hulu subscriber growth, and the company’s plan for streaming, cruise expansion, and global theme‑parks will be important catalysts.
5. Global Macros & Consumer Health – The business remains exposed to discretionary consumer spending (parks, resorts, vacation travel) and global economic conditions.
Trend: Moderately bullish — supported by the turnaround in streaming and park strength
Resistance: ~$135
Support: ~$100
Forecast: If Disney delivers strong Experiences income, streaming metrics improvement and reaffirmed guidance, shares could move toward ~$135. A weaker outlook or cost surprises could see retest of the ~$100 level.
Sentiment toward Disney is constructively positive. Analysts are optimistic about its diversified model and margin improvement in streaming, but caution that competition and cost escalation in sports and content rights could weigh.
Disney’s Q3 results will reflect not just another earnings quarter, but whether the company is successfully balancing its iconic businesses (parks, resorts, media) with its growth engines (streaming, global expansion). For investors the key takeaway will be: Is Disney’s turnaround turning into durable strength — and is the valuation justified?
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