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Global markets are trading with a constructive risk tone as commodity-linked and high-beta currencies extend their gains. Rising oil prices continue to underpin the Canadian Dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand Dollars draw support from improving domestic fundamentals and shifting rate expectations. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains on the defensive amid lingering Federal Reserve uncertainty, allowing major pairs to push toward multi-month and cycle highs.
USD/CAD has slid toward the 1.3530 area, marking its lowest level since October 2024, as strong crude oil prices boost the Canadian Dollar while the US Dollar remains broadly pressured.
• Oil Prices:Rising crude prices continue to support CAD through improved terms of trade.
•US Dollar Weakness: Softer USD sentiment amid Fed uncertainty weighs on the pair.
•Risk Tone:A constructive global risk backdrop favors commodity-linked currencies.
• Trend: Bearish
• Resistance: 1.3600
• Support: 1.3500
• Forecast: Further downside remains possible while below 1.3600.
• Market Sentiment: Bearish USD/CAD
• Catalysts: Oil price movements, US data releases, Fed commentary
NZD/USD has strengthened above 0.6050, supported by an improved New Zealand Trade Balance that reinforces optimism around external demand.
•Trade Data: Stronger trade balance supports the Kiwi.
•Risk Appetite: Positive sentiment lifts higher-yielding currencies.
•USD Pressure: Ongoing softness in the US Dollar aids upside momentum.
• Trend: Bullish
• Resistance: 0.6100
• Support: 0.6000
• Forecast: Upside bias remains intact while holding above 0.6000.
• Market Sentiment: Constructive
• Catalysts: Global risk sentiment, upcoming US macro data
AUD/USD has climbed toward 0.7050, driven by rising expectations of further RBA rate hikes following resilient domestic data.
•RBA Expectations:Markets price in a more hawkish policy outlook.
•Economic Data: Strong local indicators underpin Aussie demand.
•Risk Environment: Supportive risk tone favors the AUD.
• Trend: Bullish
• Resistance: 0.7100
• Support: 0.7000
• Forecast: The pair may extend gains if it sustains above the 0.7000 handle.
• Market Sentiment: Bullish AUD
• Catalysts: Australian economic releases, RBA signals
EUR/USD is gaining traction above 1.1950, supported by persistent uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
•Fed Uncertainty: Expectations of a more cautious Fed weaken the USD.
•Euro Stability: Reduced downside pressure on the Euro supports gains.
•Positioning: Investors favor diversification away from the Dollar.
• Trend: Bullish
• Resistance: 1.2000
• Support: 1.1900
• Forecast: A sustained break above 1.2000 could open further upside.
• Market Sentiment: Positive
• Catalysts: US inflation data, Fed communication
GBP/USD has rebounded toward 1.3850, trading near four-year highs as broader US Dollar weakness supports Sterling.
•USD Weakness: A softer Dollar remains the primary tailwind.
• Relative Yield Appeal: UK rates continue to support the Pound.
•Market Confidence: Risk-on flows favor higher-beta majors.
• Trend: Bullish
• Resistance: 1.3900
• Support: 1.3750
• Forecast: The pair may consolidate near highs before attempting further gains.
• Market Sentiment: Bullish GBP/USD
• Catalysts: UK economic data, US macro developments
Overall, price action reflects a market increasingly comfortable with risk, favoring commodity and growth-sensitive currencies over the US Dollar. With oil prices holding firm and central bank expectations in focus, traders will remain attentive to incoming macro data and policy signals that could either reinforce or challenge the current FX momentum in the sessions ahead.
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