This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.

Allow all

This website is operated by Moneta Markets Ltd, which is not authorised or regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and does not offer or promote services to UK residents. Access to this website is restricted in the UK and the content is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person located in the UK. If you believe you have reached this website in error, please exit the page now

Exit Website Continue

Please note that Moneta Markets operates this website and its services are not directed at residents of your jurisdiction.

The information on this site is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

If you have arrived here in error, we kindly advise you to exit the site.

Continue to Site

Risk Sentiment Improves as Iran Peace Hopes Pressure US Dollar and Oil | 25th May, 2026

Risk-On Market Mood

Global financial markets are shifting toward a more optimistic tone as growing hopes surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement continue reducing geopolitical risk premiums across major asset classes. The improving sentiment is weighing on the US Dollar and crude oil prices, while supporting currencies such as the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen as traders rotate away from defensive positioning.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil prices are slipping below the $91.00 level as optimism surrounding potential US-Iran peace progress reduces fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Easing tensions reduce geopolitical supply concerns

• US Economic Data: Softer USD limits some downside pressure on commodities

• FOMC Outcome: Stable Fed expectations reduce market volatility

• Trade Policy: Improved diplomatic outlook supports broader market stability

• Monetary Policy: Reduced safe-haven demand weakens oil’s geopolitical premium

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish

• Resistance: $92.50

• Support: $89.80

• Forecast: Oil may remain under pressure while peace optimism persists

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish oil

• Catalysts: US-Iran diplomatic headlines and global risk appetite

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Japanese Yen is gaining traction as improving geopolitical sentiment reduces safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and encourages broader market repositioning.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Peace progress supports defensive unwinding of USD positions

• US Economic Data: Softer USD sentiment supports Yen recovery

• FOMC Outcome: Reduced Fed-driven volatility limits USD upside

• Trade Policy: Stable market sentiment improves appetite for Asian currencies

• Monetary Policy: BoJ stability supports Yen resilience

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish USD/JPY

• Resistance: 159.20

• Support: 157.80

• Forecast: Further downside possible if USD weakness deepens

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish JPY

• Catalysts: Iran negotiations and US Dollar movement

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index is weakening toward the 99.00 level as improving geopolitical sentiment reduces demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Iran peace hopes reduce defensive USD demand

• US Economic Data: Stable US data limits aggressive Dollar selling

• FOMC Outcome: Fed outlook remains relatively balanced

• Trade Policy: Improved diplomatic tone supports broader risk appetite

• Monetary Policy: Markets reduce expectations of extreme Fed hawkishness

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish to neutral

• Resistance: 99.60

• Support: 98.70

• Forecast: DXY may continue softening if risk sentiment improves further

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish USD

• Catalysts: Geopolitical developments and Fed commentary

USD/CHF Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Swiss Franc is advancing against the US Dollar as improving market sentiment and reduced geopolitical fear weaken broad USD demand.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions improve confidence in European currencies

• US Economic Data: Softer USD momentum supports CHF gains

• FOMC Outcome: Less aggressive Fed expectations weigh on USD

• Trade Policy: Improving diplomatic sentiment boosts market confidence

• Monetary Policy: SNB stability supports Swiss Franc resilience

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish USD/CHF

• Resistance: 0.8880

• Support: 0.8790

• Forecast: Pair may continue drifting lower while USD remains soft

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish CHF

• Catalysts: Risk sentiment and geopolitical updates

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1650 region as bullish momentum improves on weaker US Dollar sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced global uncertainty weakens safe-haven USD demand

• US Economic Data: Softer Dollar sentiment supports Euro recovery

• FOMC Outcome: Fed expectations stabilize after recent hawkish repricing

• Trade Policy: Improved market confidence supports EUR buying interest

• Monetary Policy: ECB outlook remains relatively stable

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 1.1700

• Support: 1.1600

• Forecast: Additional upside possible if USD weakness extends

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish EUR

• Catalysts: Geopolitical progress and US Dollar direction

Wrap-Up

Global markets are gradually shifting back toward risk-on positioning as hopes for diplomatic progress between the US and Iran continue easing geopolitical fears, pressuring the US Dollar and crude oil prices while supporting recovery across major currencies including the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with traders now closely watching whether improving sentiment can sustain broader momentum across FX and commodity markets.

Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!

Risk Warning:
Derivatives are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how Derivatives work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Trading derivatives is risky. It isn't suitable for everyone; you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. You don't own or have rights to the underlying assets. Past performance is no indication of future performance and tax laws are subject to change. The information on this website is general in nature and doesn't consider your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. Please read our legal documents and ensure that you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions.
Regional Restrictions:
The information on this site is not intended for residents of Canada, Cyprus, France, Spain, Russia, Ukraine, Italy, the United States, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: Unit 7, 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Mmonexia Ltd, facilitates payment services to the licensed and regulated entities within the Moneta Markets Organizational structure.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus. Mmonexia Ltd, facilitates payment services to the licensed and regulated entities within the Moneta Markets Organizational structure.

Moneta Markets Limited. Business Registration Number:72493069. Registration Address: Flat/RM A 12/F ZJ 300, 300 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Contact Phone Number: +852 37522556. Operational Office: Unit 1201, 12/F, FWD Financial Centre, 308 Des Voeux Road Central, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets Capital Ltd is registered in England and Wales under company number 08279988, registered office address, Amlbenson the Long Lodge, 265-269 Kingston Road, Wimbledon, England, SW19 3NW and authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom (FRN 613381) to provide services to UK clients and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Markets Excellence Holding Limited. Other Moneta Markets entities are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and do not offer services to UK residents.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.