This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.

Allow all

This website is operated by Moneta Markets Ltd, which is not authorised or regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and does not offer or promote services to UK residents. Access to this website is restricted in the UK and the content is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person located in the UK. If you believe you have reached this website in error, please exit the page now

Exit Website Continue

Please note that Moneta Markets operates this website and its services are not directed at residents of your jurisdiction.

The information on this site is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

If you have arrived here in error, we kindly advise you to exit the site.

Continue to Site

Diverge as Central Bank Signals Drive Mixed FX Performance | 13th May, 2026

FX Markets Diverge

Global markets opened with a cautious tone as oil prices slipped despite lingering supply concerns, weighing on broader commodity sentiment. Across FX, price action remained mixed, with the Japanese Yen turning cautious amid fiscal and political uncertainty, the Australian Dollar holding near multi-month highs, and Asian currencies steady as traders monitored policy signals from China and ongoing global macro risks.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The British Pound (GBP/USD) remains vulnerable near a two-week low against the US Dollar, although the pair continues holding above the 1.3500 support region. Price action reflects stronger USD demand following hot US CPI inflation data.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Persistent US-Iran tensions continue boosting safe-haven demand for USD.

• US Economic Data: Stronger-than-expected US CPI data is supporting the Dollar.

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations continue pressuring GBP/USD.

• Trade Policy: Stable trade conditions are offering limited support to Sterling.

• Monetary Policy: Divergence between Fed and BoE expectations weighs on GBP.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish.

• Resistance: 1.3580

• Support: 1.3500

• Forecast: Further downside possible if USD strength persists.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish.

• Catalysts: US inflation outlook and geopolitical developments.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY remains elevated as the Japanese Yen stays subdued despite increasingly hawkish expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. The pair reflects continued broad USD resilience.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand continues favoring the US Dollar over the Yen.

• US Economic Data: Hot US CPI inflation reinforces USD demand.

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations support higher Treasury yields and USD strength.

• Trade Policy: Stable regional conditions are limiting volatility.

• Monetary Policy: BoJ hawkish signals are being overshadowed by stronger Fed expectations.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish.

• Resistance: 161.00

• Support: 158.80

• Forecast: Upside bias remains while USD strength dominates.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish USD/JPY / Bearish JPY.
• Catalysts: US yields and BoJ commentary.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD is edging higher toward the 0.7250 level as hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia rhetoric supports the Australian Dollar. Traders are also monitoring developments surrounding the upcoming Trump-Xi summit for broader market direction.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Easing regional concerns are supporting selective AUD demand.

• US Economic Data: Strong US inflation continues limiting broader AUD upside.

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations are capping gains in risk-sensitive currencies.

• Trade Policy: Market optimism surrounding the Trump-Xi summit is supporting sentiment.

• Monetary Policy: Hawkish RBA tone is providing support for AUD.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Mildly bullish.

• Resistance: 0.7300

• Support: 0.7180

• Forecast: Gradual upside possible while sentiment remains stable.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish.

• Catalysts: US-China developments and central bank commentary.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The New Zealand Dollar remains relatively stable after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon reaffirmed plans to trim government spending and maintain a fiscal surplus path amid global uncertainty. Price action reflects cautious confidence in New Zealand’s fiscal outlook.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty continues influencing broader FX sentiment.

• US Economic Data: Strong US inflation data supports USD stability.

• FOMC Outcome: Fed policy expectations continue influencing risk-sensitive currencies.

• Trade Policy: Stable Asia-Pacific conditions support NZD resilience.

• Monetary Policy: Fiscal discipline supports long-term confidence in the New Zealand economy.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral.

• Resistance: 0.6020

• Support: 0.5920

• Forecast: Consolidation likely amid mixed market conditions.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral.

• Catalysts: Fiscal policy updates and USD movement.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD is holding near the 1.3700 level as stronger US inflation data and ongoing US-Iran tensions continue supporting the US Dollar. Meanwhile, stable oil prices are helping limit stronger upside momentum in the pair.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Iran tensions continue supporting defensive USD demand.

• US Economic Data: Hot CPI data reinforces expectations of prolonged higher US interest rates.

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed pricing continues supporting USD strength.

• Trade Policy: Stable energy demand supports the Canadian Dollar.

• Monetary Policy: Fed-BoC policy divergence supports USD/CAD stability.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral to bullish.

• Resistance: 1.3760

• Support: 1.3620

• Forecast: Sideways to slightly higher movement likely.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral.

• Catalysts: Oil prices and inflation expectations.

Wrap-Up

Global forex markets remain mixed as hotter US inflation data and persistent geopolitical tensions continue supporting the US Dollar, while traders balance diverging central bank expectations and regional economic developments to assess the next directional move across currencies, commodities, and broader financial markets.

Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!

Risk Warning:
Derivatives are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how Derivatives work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Trading derivatives is risky. It isn't suitable for everyone; you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. You don't own or have rights to the underlying assets. Past performance is no indication of future performance and tax laws are subject to change. The information on this website is general in nature and doesn't consider your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. Please read our legal documents and ensure that you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions.
Regional Restrictions:
The information on this site is not intended for residents of Canada, Cyprus, France, Spain, Russia, Ukraine, Italy, the United States, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: Unit 7, 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Mmonexia Ltd, facilitates payment services to the licensed and regulated entities within the Moneta Markets Organizational structure.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus. Mmonexia Ltd, facilitates payment services to the licensed and regulated entities within the Moneta Markets Organizational structure.

Moneta Markets Limited. Business Registration Number:72493069. Registration Address: Flat/RM A 12/F ZJ 300, 300 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Contact Phone Number: +852 37522556. Operational Office: Unit 1201, 12/F, FWD Financial Centre, 308 Des Voeux Road Central, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets Capital Ltd is registered in England and Wales under company number 08279988, registered office address, Amlbenson the Long Lodge, 265-269 Kingston Road, Wimbledon, England, SW19 3NW and authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom (FRN 613381) to provide services to UK clients and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Markets Excellence Holding Limited. Other Moneta Markets entities are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and do not offer services to UK residents.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.