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Pound Leads Gains as Easing Tensions Weigh on Dollar | 1st April, 2026

Pound Leads FX Gains

Global markets are shifting toward a more constructive tone as easing Middle East tensions reduce demand for safe-haven assets, weighing on the US Dollar. The British Pound is leading gains among major currencies, benefiting from improving sentiment and a softer USD backdrop. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian and Australian Dollars are also advancing, supported by stabilizing oil prices and reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The Euro is following suit with steady gains, while overall market sentiment reflects a transition away from defensive positioning. Despite this improvement, traders remain cautious as developments around the region continue to evolve.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD edges higher as easing geopolitical tensions weaken the US Dollar, allowing the Pound to lead gains among major currencies. The pair reflects improving sentiment, though upside momentum remains measured.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: De-escalation reduces safe-haven demand for USD, supporting GBP.
US Economic Data: Softer USD tone helps lift the pair.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed stance may still cap further gains.
Trade Policy: Improved global stability supports risk currencies like GBP.
Monetary Policy: BoE outlook remains relatively stable, supporting Sterling.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish recovery.
Resistance: 1.2850
Support: 1.2650
Forecast: GBP/USD may extend gains if USD weakness persists.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Moderately bullish.
Catalysts: US data releases, UK macro data, geopolitical updates.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD declines as the Canadian Dollar strengthens on oil rebound and easing geopolitical tensions. The pair reflects both USD softness and improved sentiment toward commodity currencies.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions support risk appetite and weaken USD.
US Economic Data: Slight USD softness pressures the pair.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish stance provides limited USD support.
Trade Policy: Stabilizing conditions benefit CAD.
Monetary Policy: Oil price recovery continues to support the Canadian Dollar.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish USD/CAD bias.
Resistance: 1.3700
Support: 1.3500
Forecast: Further downside possible if oil remains supported.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish CAD bias.
Catalysts: Oil prices, US data, geopolitical developments.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI rebounds toward the $98.50 level as efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz support supply expectations. The move reflects partial recovery following recent declines.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: De-escalation reduces extreme volatility but keeps supply concerns in focus.
US Economic Data: Stable demand outlook supports prices.
FOMC Outcome: Higher rates may cap demand expectations.
Trade Policy: Improved stability supports steady energy demand.
Monetary Policy: Tight conditions may limit upside momentum.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Recovery within broader range.
Resistance: $100.50
Support: $95.00
Forecast: Oil may consolidate with slight upside bias.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bullish.
Catalysts: Hormuz developments, inventory data, geopolitical updates.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD rises above the 1.1550 level as the US Dollar softens following easing geopolitical tensions. The pair benefits from improved sentiment and positioning ahead of further developments.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions weaken USD and support EUR.
US Economic Data: Slight softness weighs on the Dollar.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed outlook limits aggressive upside.
Trade Policy: Improved global conditions support the Euro.
Monetary Policy: ECB stance remains steady.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish bias.
Resistance: 1.1620
Support: 1.1480
Forecast: EUR/USD may continue edging higher.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Moderately bullish.
Catalysts: Eurozone data, US macro releases, geopolitical updates.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD extends gains as improved global sentiment and signs of US withdrawal from the Iran conflict weigh on the Dollar. The pair reflects renewed demand for risk-sensitive currencies.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: De-escalation boosts demand for risk currencies like AUD.
US Economic Data: USD softness supports upside.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed stance may limit gains.
Trade Policy: China-related outlook remains supportive.
Monetary Policy: RBA outlook provides additional support.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish recovery.
Resistance: 0.7050
Support: 0.6900
Forecast: AUD/USD may extend gains if sentiment remains positive.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish.
Catalysts: Risk sentiment, China data, geopolitical developments.

Wrap-Up

Markets are shifting toward a more optimistic tone as easing Middle East tensions reduce demand for safe-haven assets and weigh on the US Dollar. The British Pound is leading gains, supported by improving sentiment and broad-based USD weakness, while other major currencies follow suit. Commodity-linked currencies are also benefiting from stabilizing oil prices, reinforcing the risk-on environment. However, while sentiment has improved, markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, and any reversal in tensions could quickly shift momentum back toward defensive positioning.

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Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.